Key Takeaways:
Taiwan has an 80% probability of establishing a strategic bitcoin reserve within five years if political conditions shift, according to the legislator who delivered a formal proposal to the island's premier and central bank.
Taiwanese legislator Dr. Ko Ju-chun sees an 80% chance the island creates a strategic bitcoin reserve within five years and near-certain odds within 10, contingent on a change of government after the 2028 or 2032 presidential election.
"National strategic reserves will not always be limited to traditional sovereign currencies, bonds, or precious metals. The world has changed," Dr. Ko, an at-large member of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan and vice co-chair of the legislature's US-Taiwan Caucus, said in an interview.
Dr. Ko delivered a Bitcoin Policy Institute report on a potential bitcoin reserve directly to Premier Cho Jung-tai and central bank Governor Yang Chin-long during a formal legislative session on April 29. Taiwan holds $602 billion in foreign exchange reserves, more than 80% of which is concentrated in US dollar-denominated assets, according to the BPI report. The island's legislature passed the Virtual Asset Service Act on June 30, creating what Dr. Ko called Taiwan's "CLARITY moment" — a reference to the US CLARITY Act now approaching a Senate floor vote.
"If Taiwan has a center-right party ruling government after the 2028 or 2032 presidential election, for example Kuomintang, I believe a bitcoin strategic reserve could become realistic within one presidential term," Dr. Ko said. "So my estimate is roughly an 80% chance within five years, and close to 100% within 10 years, or at least, a very high chance within 10 years if the political conditions are right."
Dr. Ko laid out a five-step roadmap: government research into bitcoin as a reserve asset, a legal foundation for digital assets, a small reserve framework, a national vault for bitcoin the government already holds or has seized, and formal reserve legislation. The research phase is underway through the BPI report and follow-up dialogue with the central bank. The legal foundation arrived June 30 with the Virtual Asset Service Act, a sweeping licensing regime for exchanges and stablecoin issuers.
The legislator frames bitcoin as a complement to Taiwan's existing holdings rather than a replacement. "Unlike dollars or bonds, bitcoin does not belong to any single sovereign state; unlike gold, it is digitally transferable and verifiable," he said, adding that under extreme geopolitical or financial pressure, the asset's "censorship resistance, neutrality, and ability to move value across borders can provide a unique layer of resilience."
Dr. Ko pointed to Ukraine, Iran and Bhutan as examples of nations that have turned to bitcoin under geopolitical or monetary pressure. Bhutan's state investment arm, Druk Holding and Investments, still holds thousands of bitcoin mined through its hydropower-powered operations.
The Political Variable
The main variable in Dr. Ko's forecast is electoral. He described Taiwan's current ruling party as "more cautious toward bitcoin, but more open to RWA and stablecoins." A center-right government led by the Kuomintang, he said, could move on a bitcoin reserve within a single presidential term.
Taiwan built its gold reserves with what Dr. Ko called foresight, and he argues the island — a technology leader with a highly concentrated reserve portfolio — should apply the same instinct to bitcoin before a crisis forces the question. The central bank has so far engaged cautiously, and no allocation has been approved. Dr. Ko is scheduled to speak at WebX in Tokyo.
If a major Asian economy like Taiwan pursues a strategic bitcoin reserve, it could accelerate sovereign adoption across the region, following similar discussions in the US, Japan and other jurisdictions. The island's $602 billion in FX reserves means even a 1% allocation would represent roughly $6 billion in potential bitcoin purchases.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
