Key Takeaways:
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick said Ethereum's staking yield gives digital asset treasury firms a structural advantage over bitcoin-focused peers, potentially driving a 40% outperformance of ETH versus BTC by year-end.
Ether may be entering a period of sustained outperformance against bitcoin following Strategy's first BTC sale since 2022, according to Standard Chartered's head of digital asset research, Geoff Kendrick. The transaction — just 32 BTC worth $2.5 million — was tiny relative to Strategy's $58 billion holdings, but Kendrick said it exposed a fundamental difference in how bitcoin and ether treasury companies operate.
"Ether treasury firms can generate staking income and may not need to sell assets to fund operations, unlike bitcoin treasuries," Kendrick wrote in a research note. He pointed to the ETH-BTC ratio, which has risen about 5% since Monday, ranking among the largest single-session gains for ether relative to bitcoin since the start of 2024.
The ETH-BTC ratio stood at approximately 0.028 as of Tuesday, according to CoinGecko data. Kendrick expects it to climb to 0.04 by year-end, implying ether would outperform bitcoin by more than 40% even if both assets move in the same direction. ETH traded at $1,941.14, down 1.2% in the past 24 hours, while BTC changed hands at $68,091.46, according to CoinGecko as of 13:30 UTC.
The structural argument centers on yield. Bitcoin does not generate income, meaning corporate treasuries that hold it — such as Strategy (MSTR) — may occasionally need to sell holdings or raise capital to cover expenses. Ethereum, by contrast, can be staked on-chain for approximately 3% annualized yield. Tom Lee's Bitmine (BMNR), the largest Ethereum treasury with an $11 billion ETH stash, estimates its staking operations generate roughly $258 million in annualized revenue, with projected rewards approaching $300 million through its MAVAN staking platform, according to company disclosures.
Kendrick, who maintains long-term ETH price targets of $4,000 by end-2026 and $40,000 by 2030, said he expects investors to increasingly reward Ethereum treasury firms for generating recurring income from their holdings. While Bitmine and SharpLink Gaming (SBET) currently trade at lower premiums than Strategy, that gap may narrow as the market prices in the self-sustaining nature of staking-based business models.
The call comes after ETH depreciated 66% versus BTC since September 2022, when Ethereum transitioned from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. The ratio reached a five-year low in April 2025 before bouncing more than 60% over the following year. Kendrick previously forecast ETH outperformance in January, citing the potential passage of the U.S. Clarity Act, which he said would create a regulatory framework for digital assets and unlock the next chapter for decentralized finance on Ethereum.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
