Key Takeaways:
- SPCX fell 9.92% overnight to $112.90 after first earnings report
- Revenue beat at $7.81B but CapEx hit $18B vs $13.22B expected
- AI compute rental deals with Anthropic, Google raise demand concerns
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SpaceX stock plunges 10% as AI CapEx overshoot spooks investors
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock plunged 9.92% in overnight trading to $112.90 from $125.33, despite beating expectations across its first-ever quarterly earnings report.
The selloff follows SpaceX spending more than $18 billion in capital expenditures during the quarter, versus the $13.22 billion analysts expected, with AI infrastructure the primary beneficiary. The overrun reinforces shareholder anxiety about AI-related spending as big tech has yet to report meaningful profits from the technology.
SpaceX reported revenue of $7.81 billion, beating the $6.93 billion consensus. The space segment delivered $962 million versus $835 million expected, connectivity reached $4.29 billion against $3.83 billion, and AI brought in $2.56 billion versus a $2.18 billion estimate. The company recorded a loss per share of $0.09, well below the expected $0.26 loss.
The AI revenue was substantially boosted by agreements to rent compute to Anthropic and Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), deals expected to generate approximately $6.5 billion in quarterly revenue once fully ramped. The existence of these agreements shows SpaceX's limited capacity exceeds what xAI needs, and reinforces that there are few sources of AI compute demand beyond OpenAI and Anthropic, according to analysts tracking the sector.
The stock's decline is consistent with a wider trend of investors punishing AI-related capital expenditures. Shareholders have grown increasingly anxious about AI spending as big tech has yet to transparently report meaningful profits from the technology. The pattern has been visible across the sector, with shares of major technology companies selling off after earnings reports that showed elevated AI infrastructure spending without corresponding revenue gains.
Since its initial public offering, SpaceX shares have faced several headwinds that hype only briefly held at bay. Wall Street analysts and Elon Musk have repeatedly voiced their belief that the company's sales can explode by 2030 and 2040, with some maintaining SPCX could become the world's first $10 trillion company. In 2026, however, the mismatch between revenue and valuation remains vast, with the company's market capitalization far outpacing its quarterly revenue run rate.
SpaceX has also drawn criticism for its IPO design, which features an uncommonly low float and unorthodoxly early insider unlocks. Both factors arguably skew share prices, and both are due to play a larger role in August as insider unlock dates approach. The low float means a relatively small number of shares can drive outsized price moves in either direction.
With imminent insider unlocks, SPCX stock appears more likely to fall to new lows in the short and mid-term than to reach again toward its all-time high. Investors will watch the next regular trading session for the stock's reaction to the earnings report and the CapEx overrun. The company's next major catalyst will be the full ramp of its AI compute rental agreements with Anthropic and Google, which could provide a clearer picture of whether the AI infrastructure spending translates into sustainable revenue.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
