Solana breaks above $80 as record on-chain activity fuels breakout

Solana rose 13% to $81.02 on July 2, clearing the $80 resistance level that had capped upside since mid-June. The move erased much of the token's June decline and pushed it back inside the trading channel that held from February through May.

Record transaction activity on the Solana network supported the move, with the seven-day average of transactions per second approaching 1,100, near an all-time high, according to CoinGecko and Solscan data. Active addresses on Solana have retested yearly highs just below 7 million, a sign of growing user engagement after months of declining price action.

The breakout follows a bounce from $62 in early June, when SOL bottomed after breaking down from a five-month rising channel that had held since February. Weekly transaction volumes hit 962 million last week, data from Solscan shows, the highest reading this year. The Relative Strength Index on the daily chart has climbed above 60, indicating building momentum from buyers after spending much of June in oversold territory near 30.

The next resistance sits at $90, a level that would require an 11% gain from current prices. A failure to hold above $80 would expose the $73 support — the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement — and reopen the path toward $62, the June low.

The move coincided with a broader crypto market recovery. Bitcoin rose 2.9% to $59,898, while Ethereum gained 2.9% to $1,609.75, according to CoinGecko data. Over $450 million in liquidations swept the market in the 24 hours through July 2, with $279 million in short positions wiped out, Coinglass data shows. Popular analyst Ali Martinez declared the "market bottom is here" on the TD Sequential indicator across Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana.

Solana's network activity has diverged from price for much of the second quarter. While the token traded near its lowest level since December 2023, on-chain throughput climbed toward record levels, driven by meme coin launchpads and speculative airdrops. The Alpenglow consensus upgrade, expected to activate in the third quarter, and Jito's planned JTX trading terminal launch in July provide specific upcoming events that could sustain momentum, according to project announcements.

The broader market backdrop remains fragile. Nearly $2 million flowed out of Solana-linked exchange-traded funds last week, consistent with broader altcoin outflows as macroeconomic conditions weigh on risk assets. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh flagged inflation as "too high" at a conference this week, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts. SOL remains about 72% below its all-time high of $293, highlighting the distance to a full recovery.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.