Silver Signals Peak as BTC Ratio Hits FTX-Crisis Level

Edgen Crypto

·Jan 27 2026, 13:14

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Key Takeaways

The ratio of Bitcoin to silver is approaching lows last seen during the November 2022 market bottom, signaling that silver's powerful rally may be overextended. Extreme intraday volatility combined with historical price patterns suggest the precious metal is vulnerable to a significant correction.

Relative Value Signal: The Bitcoin-to-silver ratio has declined to approximately 780, nearing the 700-level recorded when Bitcoin bottomed at $15,500 during the FTX collapse.
Extreme Volatility: After a nearly 300% gain over the past year, silver experienced a 15% intraday price swing on Monday, a classic characteristic of a potential blow-off top.
Historical Precedent: Previous major peaks in the silver market have historically clustered in the first half of the year, including January 1980 and April 2011, adding a seasonal warning to the current rally.

Bitcoin-to-Silver Ratio Nears November 2022 Low of 700

A key cross-asset indicator, the Bitcoin-to-silver ratio, has fallen to approximately 780, signaling a potential peak in silver's relative valuation. This level is approaching the low of around 700 seen in November 2022, which coincided with the FTX capitulation and Bitcoin's cycle bottom of approximately $15,500. A low ratio indicates that silver has become expensive relative to Bitcoin, suggesting that capital may soon rotate out of the precious metal and into assets perceived as undervalued.

Silver's 300% Rally Falters With 15% Intraday Plunge

Silver's price stability is deteriorating after its nearly 300% surge over the past year. On Monday, the metal's price exhibited classic blow-off top behavior, briefly touching a high of $117 per ounce before plummeting almost 15% to settle around $112. This bout of extreme volatility raises concerns that the year-long rally has reached its conclusion. This price action aligns with historical patterns where significant silver tops, such as those in January 1980 and April 2011, occurred in the first half of the calendar year. The combination of extreme volatility and historical precedent suggests the precious metal has reached a vulnerable inflection point.