Saylor says Bitcoin won as Strategy pauses 5-week buying streak

Michael Saylor declared Bitcoin's protocol battle won Tuesday, even as his company Strategy sat out a fifth consecutive week without buying a single coin.

Michael Saylor declared Bitcoin's protocol battle won Tuesday, even as his company Strategy sat out a fifth week without buying a single coin.

"Bitcoin's consensus rules are its constitution — rewriting them attacks every participant alive today and every one who comes later," Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, said.

The buying freeze coincides with the approach of BIP-110, a proposed soft fork that would cap arbitrary data fields in Bitcoin transactions. Its mandatory lock-in window opens around August 2026, according to the proposal's deployment schedule. Strategy has instead built a $3.75 billion cash reserve through equity sales, including $544.5 million in MSTR stock last week alone, per a July 27 Form 8-K filing.

The pause leaves Strategy 156,225 BTC short of its 1 million target by end-2026, with about 22 weeks remaining. Closing that gap would require roughly 7,000 BTC per week, or near $447 million at current prices. The company is buying none.

The $9.9 Billion Hole

Strategy holds 843,775 BTC at an average cost of $75,494 per coin. With Bitcoin trading near $63,817 as of 14:00 UTC Tuesday, the position sits roughly $9.9 billion underwater on paper. The stack would need an 18% rally just to return to break-even.

The company's preferred shares add another layer of pressure. STRC trades near $88.86, about 11% below its $100 par value, despite a dividend raised to 12% on July 1. The Digital Credit Capital Framework, announced June 29, authorized up to $1.25 billion in Bitcoin sales alongside a buyback program.

The mNAV Mechanism Breaks Down

Strategy's entire capital model depends on its stock trading at a premium to the Bitcoin it holds. When the mNAV ratio — market value of equity divided by the net asset value of Bitcoin holdings — sits above 1.0, the company can issue new shares at a premium, use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin, and increase Bitcoin per share. That mechanism broke down in late June, when the ratio touched approximately 0.99, the first time in company history it slipped below parity.

MSTR trades near $96.66, down about 76% from its 52-week high of $414.36. Every dollar raised through equity sales now costs far more dilution than it would have a year ago.

Strategy reports second-quarter earnings Thursday after the US market close. Analysts estimate a loss of $2.19 per share on revenue of $121.88 million, according to TradingView and FactSet. The earnings call will be the first opportunity for investors to hear directly from Saylor on whether the buying freeze reflects a tactical liquidity pause or a deeper strategic shift.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.