Rubio declares Iran war over as 58% of Americans oppose conflict

Rubio told lawmakers the "Epic Fury" operation had ended and the US had achieved victory, even as Iran launched fresh strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.

"We are no longer conducting strikes inside Iran because Epic Fury is over," Rubio said during a House Appropriations Committee hearing on Wednesday, while acknowledging Iran retained "some drone and maritime capability."

The declaration came as 58% of Americans now oppose the war, up from 47% at its start, according to an average of national polls. Republican support remains at 81%, though Trump's net approval has fallen to -19, the lowest of his second term, as gas prices hover at $4.29 a gallon versus $3.00 before the Feb. 28 invasion. The last time Trump's approval sat this low was in the final months of his first term, when the pandemic drove his ratings into negative territory.

With the November midterms five months away and Democrats holding a 7-point lead on the generic congressional ballot — matching their advantage before the 2018 wave that delivered 40 House seats — the war's political fallout is intensifying. Republican candidates in competitive races are already expressing unease, with Iowa Senate nominee Ashley Hinson calling the conflict a "political liability" if it drags on.

A Ceasefire Under Strain

The April 7 ceasefire has shown signs of collapse. Iran announced Monday it was suspending participation in peace talks, and the two sides exchanged renewed fire. US forces struck Iran's Qeshm Island near the Strait of Hormuz — which handles 21% of global oil trade — after Iranian missiles hit Kuwait International Airport, killing one person and injuring more than 60. Central Command said American forces "successfully defeated" the attacks.

Trump shrugged off the breakdown, telling a podcast he "didn't care" if talks were off, while adding that Iran had agreed not to pursue a nuclear weapon and that he would "probably" meet Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. The younger Khamenei, who succeeded his father after the initial US-Israeli strikes, has not been seen publicly since the war began. Rubio told senators Tuesday that Khamenei is "increasingly engaging at some level" through written communication and intermediaries.

Midterm Math Turns Against the War

The conflict's economic consequences are reshaping the electoral outlook. Gas prices have surged more than 40% since late February, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy flows. Republican economic approval has slipped: Trump's handling of inflation dropped 9 points among Republican voters between February and May, according to a CBS News poll, while the share of Republicans calling gas prices a financial hardship rose to 50% from 41%.

Thirteen Senate seats are now open — nine held by Republicans and four by Democrats — after primary defeats of incumbents in Louisiana and Texas. The Cook Political Report rates 18 House seats as toss-ups, meaning whichever party wins in November will likely hold a slim majority. Democrats are pushing for new War Powers Resolution votes, forcing Republican lawmakers to take positions that could be used against them in the fall. Speaker Mike Johnson postponed a vote on a War Powers Resolution two weeks ago after some Republican lawmakers expressed willingness to support legislation requiring congressional authorization for continued hostilities.

Oil Markets Face Extended Disruption

The Strait of Hormuz blockade has disrupted a waterway that handles 21% of global oil trade, keeping upward pressure on energy prices. Trump said it was "unlikely" the blockade would be lifted by Labor Day, suggesting months more of elevated costs for US consumers. Rubio said the US would lift the blockade when Iran stops interfering with tanker traffic, though a long-term agreement on Iran's nuclear program would likely take months to negotiate.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.