QatarEnergy's LNG force majeure through early November and European inventories at 65.09 percent of capacity, about 12 points below August 2025, pushed the Dutch TTF contract up 2.4 percent to 71.52 euros a megawatt-hour. U.S. Nymex gas settled 1.1 percent lower at $2.904 per mmBtu on ample supply and Tropical Storm Edouard's cooling rains.
A widening transatlantic split is emerging in gas markets as QatarEnergy's extended force majeure through early November tightens European supply ahead of winter, even as ample U.S. production and Tropical Storm Edouard's cooling rains keep Nymex futures well supplied.
"Tight supply entering the heating season leaves the market vulnerable to spikes higher later in the year," Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, commodities strategists at ING, said in a note. LNG flows from the Persian Gulf remain significantly restricted after U.S.-Iran strikes over the weekend, they said.
The benchmark Dutch TTF contract jumped 2.4 percent to 71.52 euros a megawatt-hour in late morning European trade. European gas inventories sit at 65.09 percent of capacity, roughly 12 percentage points below levels in August 2025, UniCredit strategists wrote, adding that market fears are growing that Europe is behind schedule with its restocking. In the U.S., Nymex natural gas for October delivery settled down 1.1 percent at $2.904 per million British thermal units, after earlier falling 2.4 percent to $2.863.
The divergence reflects two separate supply pictures. Europe enters the 2026/27 heating season without normal Qatari supply, and with inventories roughly 12 points below last year's level, sustained high demand is likely through at least the end of 2026, UniCredit said. The last time European storage ran this far below seasonal norms heading into autumn, TTF prices traded above 100 euros a megawatt-hour within weeks as buyers competed for spot cargoes. Across the Atlantic, strong late-summer production and comfortable inventory levels keep Nymex gas well supplied, with LNG export activity recovering to four-month highs, according to Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics.
Tropical Storm Edouard was making landfall along the Texas-Louisiana coast, with rain expected to lower temperatures and cooling demand. Production and LNG export activity are expected to see limited impact from the storm, Rubin said, though the traditionally soft Labor Day weekend lies ahead. A near-record start to September cooling demand had been supportive of Nymex gas before the storm's approach.
The tight global LNG backdrop leaves the Northern Hemisphere particularly exposed as the heating season approaches, ING said. If Persian Gulf flows stay restricted through November and European restocking remains behind schedule, TTF prices face sustained upward pressure into peak winter demand, with buyers competing for a shrinking pool of spot cargoes. Should Qatari supply resume and U.S. exports continue climbing, the pressure would ease — but the window to rebuild inventories before winter closes is narrowing.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
