OPEC sees oil demand rising to 124 million bpd by 2050, with no peak in sight — The cartel raised its long-term forecast by 1.1 million bpd from last year, citing policy shifts toward energy security and affordability across the US, Europe and emerging markets.
OPEC raised its long-term oil demand forecast to 124 million barrels a day by 2050, up from last year's estimate, asserting that global consumption has not peaked and will keep growing for decades.
"Global oil demand is expected to continue rising, supported by policy shifts toward energy security and affordability," OPEC said in its 2026 World Oil Outlook published Thursday. The 11-member cartel, which depends on oil revenue for the bulk of government income, sees demand reaching 113.3 million bpd by 2030 from 105.1 million bpd in 2025 — unchanged from last year's medium-term projection.
The report puts OPEC sharply at odds with the International Energy Agency, which forecast in November that oil demand would hit just 113 million bpd by mid-century. The IEA had previously expected demand to peak by 2029, a milestone OPEC says is not on the horizon. The divergence reflects fundamentally different views on the pace of the energy transition, with OPEC betting that slower electric-vehicle adoption in Europe and policy reversals under the Trump administration will sustain fossil-fuel consumption for decades.
Policy tailwinds and supply constraints
The cartel cited a "shifted energy policy landscape" driven by an increased focus on energy security and affordability. Slower-than-expected EV uptake in Europe and US policy changes affecting support for renewables, EVs and fuel-efficiency standards are expected to support oil demand in the medium and long term, OPEC said. Growth in India, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America will also drive consumption, even as China makes "impressive progress" in its renewable energy shift.
On the supply side, OPEC said US shale output likely peaked in 2025 at just over 9 million bpd, with total US liquids supply growing by only 400,000 bpd through 2030 before entering a plateau. The assessment comes as the US became the world's largest oil exporter in 2026, according to ship-tracking data, reflecting the shale boom and disruptions to Saudi and Russian exports from wars and sanctions. Production from countries outside the wider OPEC+ alliance is expected to peak from the early 2030s, the report said.
The report arrives as OPEC navigates one of its most turbulent years. The Iran war has forced Gulf exporters to make deep production cuts, while the United Arab Emirates — an OPEC member for nearly 60 years — shocked the group by leaving earlier this year. To meet projected demand, the cartel said the oil sector needs $17.7 trillion in investment through 2050, down from $18.2 trillion estimated last year.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
