OG Bitcoin holders slashed selling to a 19-month low as on-chain and halving-cycle data converge on a potential bottom in early September.
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OG Bitcoin selling hits 19-month low as halving model flags September bottom
OG Bitcoin holders slashed selling to a 19-month low as on-chain and halving-cycle data converge on a potential bottom in early September.
Bitcoin OG holders cut 90-day average spending to 962 BTC, a 19-month low, as BTC traded at $62,256, CryptoQuant data shows.
"OG holders have generated the highest spending levels on record this cycle, but selling pressure has now eased sharply," Darkfost, a CryptoQuant analyst, said. "The most expensive coins held by this group were acquired near $63,200, close to current prices, suggesting many are choosing not to sell."
The 90-day average peaked at 3,860 BTC in May 2024, 3,200 BTC in February 2025 and 2,360 BTC in September 2025, with individual sessions exceeding 10,000 BTC and even 142,000 BTC. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. said the adjusted net unrealized profit/loss fell to -0.14 from near zero a month ago. "Short-term holder capital has shrunk by 56%, while long-term holder capital has barely drawn down," Adler Jr. said.
The divergence suggests newer entrants bear the brunt of the selloff while veteran investors hold firm. Crypto analyst LP identified a halving-cycle pattern placing a potential bottoming window in early September, with the 826-day post-halving marker falling on July 6.
Halving Cycle Points to September Bottom
The previous bear market entered a final capitulation phase 826 days after the halving, followed by a major low and sideways consolidation lasting 70 to 110 days, LP said. For the current cycle, the 826-day marker falls on July 6, placing a potential bottom in early September. BTC trader Titan identified downside liquidity below current levels, with an untapped low near $58,900 on the quarterly chart and an open fair value gap between $49,000 and $58,900.
Realized Price Suggests $50K-$54K Support
Bitcoin's realized price — the average on-chain acquisition cost of all coins — sits near $53,457, according to Glassnode. In every major bear market cycle, Bitcoin eventually traded just under its realized price before establishing a cycle bottom. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 BTC have an average cost basis of roughly $54,300, while the largest holders — those with more than 100,000 BTC — have an average cost basis just below $49,000, suggesting a potential support zone between $50,000 and $54,000.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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