Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s recovery above $80,000 was driven almost entirely by new, large-scale investors, with on-chain data showing long-term whales sat out the 17.5 percent rally. An analysis of whale wallets from April 3 to May 2 reveals that new whales accumulated 149,800 BTC while the oldest holders added just 1,200 BTC.
"The profit-taking that occurred during the rally was driven entirely by recent capital, not by the participants who have held Bitcoin through multiple cycles," analyst Carmelo Aleman, who published the study, said.
The analysis defines "new whales" as entities holding over 1,000 BTC for less than 155 days and "old whales" as those holding for longer. During the 30-day period, new whales saw approximately $865 million in net profits, while old whales had a negative net reading of $87 million. This divergence shows newer capital trading tactically while long-term holders maintained their existing positions.
This behavioral split raises questions about the rally's sustainability as Bitcoin tests major trend resistance at its 200-day moving average near the $82,000 level. Without participation from the most structurally committed holders, the price recovery may lack the foundation for a sustained move higher, leaving it vulnerable to the short-term profit-taking of newer entrants.
The detailed on-chain analysis from Aleman highlights a stark contrast in behavior between two distinct cohorts of large Bitcoin holders. As the price recovered 17.5 percent over the month, new whales increased their holdings by 15.2 percent, growing their balance from 985,639 BTC to 1,135,400 BTC. This aggressive accumulation stands in sharp relief to the actions of old whales, whose holdings barely shifted by 0.04 percent.
This pattern suggests that the recent price strength was fueled by capital that is more sensitive to short-term price changes. Aleman’s study notes that this behavior is closer to that of tactical traders than long-term investors. The lack of accumulation from older, more experienced wallets implies they did not view the rally as a significant buying opportunity, instead opting for a "structural holding mode."
The whale data provides crucial context as Bitcoin trades near $80,800, approaching a critical technical juncture. The price is currently testing its 200-day moving average, which sits between $82,000 and $84,000. A decisive break above this level could signal a new bullish phase, targeting $90,000. However, a failure at this resistance could see prices pull back toward the $74,000 support zone.
The divergence in whale activity, coupled with trading volume that remains lower than during the March selloff, suggests the rally may be more a result of reduced selling pressure than a surge of new, committed demand. While large withdrawals of other assets like Ethereum from exchanges can signal broad holding intent, the Bitcoin-specific data points to a more nuanced and cautious picture among its largest investors.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
