Lam Research targets record $6.6B in Q4 sales as AI memory demand surges

Lam Research is on track to deliver its highest quarterly revenue ever as memory makers race to build capacity for AI workloads.

Lam Research expects record quarterly sales of $6.6 billion in Q4 fiscal 2026, driven by surging demand for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM equipment from chipmakers expanding AI production capacity. The target would surpass the company's prior record of $6.2 billion set in Q3, reflecting a roughly 6% sequential gain.

"The memory recovery is structural, not cyclical, and it's being driven by AI training and inference requirements that show no signs of slowing," Tim Archer, chief executive officer of Lam Research, said on the company's most recent earnings call.

The equipment spending cycle is being fueled by a structural supply deficit across the memory industry. Manufacturers including Samsung, SK hynix and Micron have reported being sold out through at least 2027, according to industry disclosures. Samsung and SK hynix jointly committed 800 trillion won ($518 billion) to build four new memory fabrication sites in Korea's Southwest Region, while Micron is investing $3 billion to strengthen its US supply chain, including $500 million in GlobalWafers Co. for 300mm raw silicon wafers. Micron chief executive Sanjay Mehrotra warned that meaningful large-scale new capacity is unlikely to arrive before 2028, with the company currently meeting only 50% to two-thirds of core customer demand.

The memory capacity crunch traces directly to AI's insatiable appetite for high-bandwidth memory, or HBM, the specialized DRAM stacked vertically to feed data to Nvidia's graphics processing units during training and inference. SK hynix, the dominant HBM supplier, is building its first US production site in West Lafayette, Indiana — a $4 billion advanced packaging and R&D facility focused on HBM, with mass production scheduled for late 2028. The company also operates its Solidigm subsidiary for enterprise NAND flash near Sacramento, California.

Lam's equipment is essential to both DRAM and NAND flash production. The company's deposition and etch tools are used in fabricating the advanced nodes required for HBM stacks and the 3D NAND layers that power AI data center storage. Sandisk and Kioxia recently announced production of their 10th generation 3D flash memory technology, BiCS10, at a facility in Kitakami, Japan — a 332-layer TLC NAND chip achieving 29Gb per mm² density and 4.8 Gb/s interface speed, a 33% improvement over the prior generation.

The equipment maker's outlook also benefits from a broader industry dynamic: ASML, the sole global supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, has said supply cannot meet demand through 2026. ASML chief executive Christophe Fouquet told investors that memory customers are "sold out for 2026," and the company's backlog closed at $45 billion against Q4 net bookings of $15.3 billion. While ASML's EUV tools are required for sub-7nm logic nodes, Lam's etch and deposition equipment is equally critical for the memory layer stacking that defines the AI chip era.

Lam Research shares trade at roughly 22 times forward earnings, a discount to ASML's 30-plus multiple, reflecting the market's preference for ASML's monopoly position in lithography. But the equipment spending wave is broad enough to lift both companies: ASML activated a 12 billion euro buyback in January 2026 running through 2028 and raised its dividend 17%, while Lam's record sales target suggests its own capital return program could accelerate. Applied Materials and Lam Research compete in deposition and etch, but neither sells lithography equipment, giving Lam a differentiated position in the memory-specific portion of the AI capex cycle.

The Q4 fiscal 2026 results are expected in late July. If Lam delivers on the $6.6 billion target, it would mark the fourth consecutive quarter of record or near-record revenue for the Fremont, California-based company, reinforcing the durability of the AI-driven equipment super-cycle.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.