Kalshi Reimburses Traders on Iran Leader Market
Prediction market Kalshi has moved to resolve its "Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader" market following the confirmed death of the Iranian leader, citing a core policy against profiting from death. The platform announced it is reimbursing all fees from the market and settling contracts based on specific timing. Traders who held positions before Khamenei's death was confirmed will be paid out according to the last-traded price. Users who opened positions after the news broke will be reimbursed the difference between their entry price and the final settlement price.
The decision drew criticism from some users who accused Kalshi of curtailing their potential profits. In response, co-founder Tarek Mansour stated that the platform's rules were clear from the outset.
We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here.
— Tarek Mansour, Co-founder, Kalshi
Geopolitical Bets Attract Insider Trading Scrutiny
Kalshi's settlement highlights the growing scrutiny on prediction markets, particularly those involving sensitive geopolitical events. In a separate incident in February, six traders on the rival platform Polymarket secured approximately $1 million in profits by betting on a U.S. strike against Iran. On-chain investigators noted that the wallets were all created that same month and some positions were filled just hours before the first explosions were reported, raising suspicions of insider trading.
This pattern of questionable trading extends to other events. In January, speculation from onchain analysis platform Lookonchain suggested a potential link between winning Polymarket bets and leaked information concerning a U.S. raid on former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. These events underscore the regulatory and ethical challenges confronting the rapidly expanding prediction market sector.
