Iran Proposes 2-Stage Hormuz Plan as US Hardens Stance

Tehran's diplomatic gambit through Pakistan meets with American skepticism, leaving the fate of 20% of the world's oil supply hanging in the balance.

Iran has offered a two-stage plan to the US to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalate the conflict, a proposal that would push nuclear talks to a later phase, even as Washington publicly declared it would not tolerate Tehran’s control over the vital waterway.

"The Iranians can call us if they want," President Donald Trump said, dismissing the idea of sending a negotiating team to the region. "We can do it just as well by telephone."

The proposal, delivered via Pakistani intermediaries, prioritizes lifting the US naval blockade on Iranian ports and restoring free passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for one-fifth of global oil shipments. In exchange, Iran suggests a "prolonged period" of ceasefire or a "permanent end to the war," with nuclear discussions to follow only after the maritime crisis is resolved. The ongoing blockade has already caused significant global economic instability and price spikes in the oil market.

The diplomatic standoff leaves global energy markets in a precarious position, with the risk of a full-blown conflict that could send oil prices soaring and trigger a flight to safety in assets like gold. US Secretary of State Rubio's statement that the US "cannot tolerate Iran's normalization of control over the Strait of Hormuz" signals a hardening of the American position, widening the gap between the two nations and dimming hopes for a swift resolution.

Tehran's Diplomatic Offensive

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been on a diplomatic tour, meeting with officials in Pakistan and Oman, and is scheduled for high-level talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This shuttle diplomacy aims to build support for Iran's proposal and find a way to circumvent the crippling US sanctions and blockade. Tehran has also reportedly sought Oman's support for a mechanism to collect tolls from vessels passing through the strait, a move that could provide a new revenue stream for the isolated nation.

Washington's Calculated Indifference

The White House, however, appears to be in no rush to engage in direct talks. President Trump's comments about a telephone call and his cancellation of a planned trip by his envoys to Islamabad suggest a deep-seated skepticism towards Iran's intentions. The US administration is likely using the "unbelievably effective" blockade, as Trump described it, to exert maximum pressure on Tehran to not only de-escalate the immediate crisis but also to force concessions on its nuclear program and regional influence. The American demand for Iran to cease uranium enrichment for at least ten years remains a major stumbling block.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.