Key Takeaways:
The US military struck an Iranian ground control station and shot down four drones near the Strait of Hormuz, Iran said Wednesday, calling it a ceasefire violation.
The US military struck an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas and shot down four attack drones near the Strait of Hormuz, Iran said Wednesday, calling the overnight operation a "continuous violation" of the fragile three-month-old ceasefire.
"The US attacks are a continuous violation of the ceasefire agreement," Iran's Foreign Ministry said in a statement, without specifying whether Tehran would retaliate. A US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the strikes as "measured, purely defensive, and intended to maintain the ceasefire."
The operation targeted a site in Iran's Bandar Abbas that was preparing to launch a fifth drone, according to the US official. It came hours after President Donald Trump dismissed an Iranian state media report that Tehran and Oman had reached a deal to jointly manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles about 21% of global oil trade. Three oil and LNG tankers exited the strait with their transponders switched off, Reuters reported, a sign of heightened security risks.
The escalation threatens to unravel a ceasefire that has contained the war triggered by US and Israeli attacks on Feb. 28. With the US Treasury also sanctioning Iran's Hormuz strait authority, the risk premium embedded in crude prices is likely to widen further. Options skew data suggests Brent crude has already priced in a geopolitical risk premium of $8 to $12 a barrel since the conflict began.
The overnight strikes mark the second time in three days the US has conducted what it calls defensive operations against Iranian forces. On Monday, US Central Command said it targeted boats attempting to lay mines and missile launch sites that posed a threat to American forces. Iran labeled that operation a violation of the ceasefire as well.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the central flashpoint. The waterway connects Persian Gulf producers — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iran itself — to global markets. Any sustained disruption could push oil prices sharply higher, with the International Energy Agency estimating that a full closure would affect 17 million barrels per day of crude and petroleum product flows.
The last time the strait faced a comparable threat was in 2019, when Iran seized tankers after the US withdrew from the nuclear deal. At that time, Brent crude spiked about 15% over six weeks before tensions eased. The current conflict, now in its third month, has already killed thousands and sent global energy prices sharply higher, according to Reuters.
For markets, the key question is whether the ceasefire holds. Iran's condemnation without an immediate military response suggests Tehran is weighing the economic cost of escalation against domestic political pressure to retaliate. The US, meanwhile, has signaled it will continue what it calls defensive operations to keep the strait open. Options markets are pricing a 35% probability of a full strait closure within the next 60 days, based on skew data.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
