Iran begins funeral rites for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader killed on the opening day of the US-Israeli war, with 15 million to 20 million mourners expected in Tehran as the regime projects strength after four months of delayed ceremonies.
Iran began funeral rites for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday, four months after the supreme leader was killed in an airstrike on the opening day of the US-Israeli war, as the regime mobilizes an expected 15 million to 20 million mourners in a display of political resilience.
"The nation's call for vengeance must ring in the ears of the whole world," Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and top nuclear negotiator, said Thursday, urging a massive turnout. The ceremonies, delayed since February due to security concerns, now proceed under a tentative truce with the US and Israel.
Khamenei's body will lie in state at Tehran's Grand Mosalla complex through Monday before processions travel to the Shia holy city of Qom and then to Mashhad, where burial at the Imam Reza Holy Shrine is scheduled for July 9. Additional ceremonies are planned in the Iraqi cities of Najaf and Karbala. Security remains high, with Basij paramilitary forces manning checkpoints and temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit).
The funeral marks a critical moment for Iran's leadership succession and regional stability. Khamenei, who ruled for three decades, held final authority over all state affairs including Iran's nuclear program and oil export policy. The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 21 percent of global oil trade passes, remains a flashpoint — Tehran has repeatedly threatened to disrupt shipping there during the conflict. US-Iran talks have been paused for the funeral period, and the Biden administration has signaled caution, with reports suggesting the US is considering pulling troops from Saudi Arabia as bilateral ties fray.
Oil Markets on Edge
Brent crude has priced in a sustained risk premium since the Feb. 28 airstrike, with traders watching for any escalation during the funeral period. The last time a senior Iranian leader was killed in a foreign strike — the January 2020 assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani — Brent surged more than 3 percent in the following session before retreating. The current conflict, which involves direct US-Israeli military operations against Iran, represents a far more significant escalation.
Gold has attracted safe-haven flows, while defense sector stocks globally have outperformed broader equity indices since the war began. The VIX, a measure of expected US equity volatility, has remained elevated above its historical average of 20 for much of the conflict period.
Succession Uncertainty
The funeral also serves as a platform for Iran's leadership to project unity amid an opaque succession process. Khamenei's son Mojtaba has been widely discussed as a potential successor, though no formal announcement has been made. The regime has consolidated power since March, according to US intelligence assessments, but the transition period creates uncertainty over Iran's nuclear posture and its willingness to engage in further negotiations.
For markets, the key question is whether the funeral period passes without fresh hostilities. Any military incident during the ceremonies — which draw millions into concentrated public spaces — could trigger a renewed spike in crude prices and a broader risk-off move across emerging-market assets.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
