IBM jumps 15% after Trump video resurfaces on $1B quantum deal

IBM shares surged as much as 15% in pre-market trading Monday after a December 2025 video of President Donald Trump praising Chief Executive Arvind Krishna resurfaced on social media.

"Arvind, you're a legend," Trump said at a White House business roundtable on Dec. 10, 2025, crediting Krishna with taking IBM's stock "from a rather low price to a very nice price."

The viral clip, often shared without its original context, built on gains already underway after IBM on May 21 won a proposed $1 billion CHIPS Act award to build America's first purpose-built quantum chip foundry. The new standalone company, called Anderon and based in Albany, New York, will be matched by $1 billion of IBM's own capital plus intellectual property and workforce.

The dual catalysts pushed IBM to $297.80 by the May 29 close, a weekly gain of roughly 13%. Whether the rally is durable depends on whether quantum computing can generate enterprise revenue before the hype fades.

IBM's award was the largest slice of a $2.01 billion package the Commerce Department spread across nine companies. GlobalFoundries is in line for $375 million, while Atom Computing, D-Wave, Infleqtion, PsiQuantum and Quantinuum each received $100 million. Rigetti got up to $100 million and Diraq $38 million. In exchange, the government takes minority, non-controlling equity stakes rather than handing out subsidies.

The company plans to invest more than $10 billion in quantum computing over five years and a separate $5 billion in Red Hat cybersecurity, executives said after the award.

Analysts split on valuation after 13% weekly rally

The consensus rating across roughly two dozen analysts is "buy," but the average 12-month price target of about $278 sits below the recent $298 close. The range runs from a low of $195 to a high of $335.

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives reiterated an "outperform" rating with a $320 target on May 29, naming IBM one of his top software picks as enterprise AI adoption accelerates. UBS maintains a "sell" with a $200 target, and at least one valuation model flags the stock as roughly 20% overvalued at current levels.

Trump trust held IBM during award period

According to Trump's Q1 2026 periodic transaction report filed May 8 with the US Office of Government Ethics, his trust conducted eight IBM transactions between February and March: four purchases and four sales, each in the $1,001 to $50,000 range. Two purchases carried an "unsolicited" tag, meaning a money manager placed the trade without the filer's direction. The White House has said Trump's assets are managed by his children, and presidents are not barred from holding or trading stocks while in office.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.