HSBC Global Investment Research lowered its price target on MINIMAX-W (00100.HK) to HKD 760 from HKD 1,000, maintaining a Hold rating. The broker cited impending share unlock events totaling 66% of outstanding shares through early 2026 and potential IPO plans by rival AI labs that could erode the company's scarcity premium. The stock fell 1.2% on the report.
HSBC cut MINIMAX-W's price target 24% to HKD 760, flagging share unlock risks and competitive pressure from rival AI lab IPOs.
"Impending lock-up expiry and peer IPOs will weigh on MiniMax's scarcity premium," HSBC Global Investment Research said in a report.
The broker maintained its Hold rating while lowering the target from HKD 1,000. The company launched MiniMax M3, its new-generation general model, with single-token computing cost at one-twentieth of the prior generation, prefill speed 9.7 times faster and decoding speed 15.6 times faster.
Some 46% of shares will be unlocked in early July, followed by 12% from late August to early October and a further 8% in January next year. IPO plans by OpenAI, Anthropic and Moonshot AI may reduce MiniMax's scarcity premium and intensify competition, the broker said.
The company is exploring a listing on the STAR Market in A shares. MINIMAX-W will be included in the HSTECH index from June 8, and HSBC expects it to be added to Southbound Stock Connect in early August.
On the positive side, the broker expects updates on annualized revenue run rate and token growth following the M3 launch, the rollout of Hailuo 3.0 next week and the launch of a trillion-parameter model before the end of August to serve as positive catalysts.
The stock traded 1.2% lower on the day, with short selling volume of HKD 24.7 million representing 2.9% of turnover.
The target cut signals HSBC sees limited near-term upside as supply overhang from share unlocks and competitive threats from well-funded AI rivals cap valuation expansion. Investors will watch the Hailuo 3.0 rollout next week and the trillion-parameter model launch in August for potential re-rating catalysts.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
