Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is forcing tanker operators to add a month of sailing time and $2.5 million in costs per voyage, Kepler data show.
Geri
Hormuz shipping traffic plunges as tanker costs surge $2.5 million
Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is forcing tanker operators to add a month of sailing time and $2.5 million in costs per voyage, Kepler data show.
Vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply on July 23 while Mandeb Strait traffic recovered, Kepler data show, as the US-Iran conflict reshapes two of the world's most critical energy chokepoints in opposite directions.
"Control of the Strait of Hormuz will determine the winner of this conflict and whether American global power holds into the future," Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, said in a social media post Friday.
The diverging patterns come after Iran declared the passage "closed" in February following US and Israeli strikes, seizing three commercial vessels since then — two MSC container ships in April and a Greek-owned tanker earlier this week. Tanker operators rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope face roughly 30 additional days at sea and $2.5 million in extra fuel and insurance costs per voyage, according to industry estimates. The Mandeb Strait recovery suggests some Red Sea shipping is returning, though the USNI News reported Houthi attacks have resumed in the waterway, keeping transit risks elevated.
Roughly one-fifth of globally traded oil and a significant share of LNG passed through Hormuz daily before the conflict. A prolonged closure risks sustained crude price spikes, higher inflation, and a structural shift in tanker routing that could persist after hostilities end. The next flashpoint: whether the US can assemble a multinational escort coalition, which Dalio described as "a big win" for the administration.
Three Vessels Seized, Insurance Costs Soar
Iran's military command has threatened to destroy "all oil, economic, and energy facilities belonging to oil companies in the region that are partly owned by the United States or that cooperate with the United States," Dalio quoted in his post. The threats have pushed shipping insurance premiums for Gulf transits to multi-decade highs, with war risk surcharges adding hundreds of thousands of dollars per voyage. The three seized vessels and their crews remain unreleased, according to reports.
Dalio Draws Parallel to 1956 Suez Crisis
Dalio compared the current standoff to the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis, arguing that a US failure to secure Hormuz could mark the beginning of American imperial decline — similar to what Britain, the Dutch Empire and the Spanish Empire experienced after losing control of strategic chokepoints. US Central Command said American forces struck Iranian military assets, including drone storage sites, in a roughly two-hour operation beginning at 2:15 a.m. local time Friday after Tehran reportedly rejected a US cease-fire proposal delivered by Iraq's leader.
The conflict has already reshaped global oil flows. Before the closure, roughly 17 million barrels of crude and petroleum products passed through Hormuz daily, equivalent to about 20% of global seaborne oil trade. The rerouting of tankers around Africa has tightened vessel supply in the Atlantic Basin while leaving Persian Gulf crude stranded, creating a two-tier market for freight rates. The last time a comparable chokepoint disruption occurred — the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine — seaborne crude routes were redrawn within weeks, with Urals crude shifting from European refineries to Indian and Chinese buyers at discounts of $30 a barrel.
What Comes Next
The trajectory of oil markets now depends on whether the US can restore freedom of navigation through Hormuz or whether the blockade becomes a semi-permanent feature of the conflict. Iran's rejection of the Iraqi-brokered cease-fire proposal suggests Tehran is betting it can outlast the US in a war of attrition. For tanker owners, the calculus is simpler: until insurance underwriters and charterers deem the strait safe, the $2.5 million rerouting cost remains cheaper than the risk of seizure.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic declines, Mandeb Strait recovers[2] Hormuz Transits Remain Low, Houthis Resume Attacks in Red Sea[3] Add a month at sea and $2.5 million - what it costs oil tankers to flee Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb[4] Here's the inflation breakdown for March 2026 — in one chart[5] Billionaire Ray Dalio Says 'Battle' For Strait Of Hormuz Will Determine America's Future
