Hormuz reopening faces weeks of delays as 118 tankers await transit

The political deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is done, but the operational reality will take weeks — and possibly months — to clear.

Four supertankers carrying about 8 million barrels of crude transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday as the U.S.-Iran interim agreement began taking effect, but more than 100 vessels remain stranded in the Persian Gulf and industry groups warned a return to normal shipping could take months, according to vessel-tracking data and shipping industry statements.

"The main requirement for recovery is stability and certainty for shipowners and insurers," Lloyd's Market Association said in a statement, warning that supply chains remain disrupted and a return to normal shipping operations could take months. Industry groups including Intertanko and Bimco said additional clarity is needed before vessel traffic returns to pre-war levels.

Kpler estimated 118 tankers carrying crude and refined products were stranded in the Persian Gulf as of Monday, with the backlog likely to take 10 to 15 days to clear in an initial "purely mechanical" phase. Before the conflict, Lloyd's List Intelligence data showed roughly 650 to 770 cargo vessel transits per week through the strait, equivalent to 90 to 110 per day. May traffic fell to about 9.6 million barrels per day, less than half the pre-conflict baseline of about 20 million.

The gap between the diplomatic agreement and restored oil flows is now the central question for energy markets. Brent crude has already corrected about $40 a barrel from its April peak to trade near $81 to $82 by mid-June, as traders priced in the deal. But Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent forecast to $80 for the fourth quarter of 2026 from $90 previously, and to $75 for the 2027 average, warning that "supply recovery might be stronger" than expected.

The operational bottlenecks that could slow the restart

Mine clearance in and around Hormuz shipping lanes requires coordinated multi-party activity that could take weeks, according to Nikos Petrakakos, managing director at maritime investment manager Tufton. War-risk insurers must then reinstate coverage, without which vessels will not move. Adam Sharpe, vice president of editorial at Lloyd's List Intelligence, said a "phased restart" was the most likely scenario, with authorities needing to decide whether vessels require prior permission, whether Iran will impose service charges, and whether foreign naval escorts are accepted.

"Underwriters will want evidence of a stable and predictable operating environment: consistent safe transits, no interference, clarity on mine risk, and no renewed escalation," Sharpe said. Pricing is likely to remain highly sensitive to vessel flag, ownership, trading history and cargo, he added.

The IEA's June Oil Market Report underscored the scale of the disruption. Global observed oil stocks declined by 143 million barrels in May alone, equivalent to a drawdown rate of 4.6 million barrels per day. OECD strategic reserves fell to their lowest level since December 1990, declining by 163 million barrels since the conflict began. The agency slashed its 2026 global demand forecast by 720,000 barrels per day from its previous estimate, now projecting a year-on-year decline of 1.1 million barrels per day — the deepest quarterly contraction since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Rystad Energy said the recovery hinges both on whether tankers can freely transit the strait and whether Gulf oil producers can load enough crude once vessels are ready to sail. QuantCube Technology data showed that in Saudi Arabia's Dammam region, which includes the Ras Tanura export complex, vessels have been loaded and sent offshore to wait, suggesting a queue may have formed outside port facilities rather than at the terminals themselves.

The IEA projects global oil supply will contract by 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026 to 102.4 million, before rebounding by about 8 million barrels per day in 2027 to 110.3 million — one of the largest single-year supply expansions in modern oil market history. That rebound, combined with demand growth of 2 million barrels per day to 105.3 million, implies a significant market surplus that would support inventory restocking. But the agency cautioned that operational and political constraints persist even within an optimistic diplomatic framework, with its base case assuming sub-pre-conflict delivery levels for the remainder of 2026.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.