Grayscale exec says XRP ETFs could lock up 6% of supply

Grayscale's Zach Pandl expects XRP exchange-traded funds to lock up 5% to 6% of the token's circulating supply, a forecast that shows growing institutional conviction in the asset.

"ETFs create a structural bid by taking tokens off the market that may never return to active trading," Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale Investments, said. "For XRP, that could mean 5% to 6% of the circulating supply gets locked inside fund structures."

The prediction comes as XRP spot ETFs pulled in $131.94 million in May, their strongest month of 2026, according to SoSoValue. That inflow contrasts with the broader market: Bitcoin ETFs shed $2.43 billion over the same period while Ethereum funds lost $540.88 million. Since the products launched, XRP funds have posted only one negative month, a $31.16 million outflow in March.

A supply lock of 5% to 6% would represent roughly 2.8 billion to 3.4 billion XRP removed from liquid circulation, based on the current circulating supply of about 56.8 billion tokens. At current prices near $1.20, that equates to $3.4 billion to $4.1 billion in value held inside fund structures — a meaningful reduction in available supply that could support prices over time if demand holds steady.

The forecast arrives at a moment of price weakness for XRP. The token slid more than 5% to about $1.20 on June 2, breaking through the key support level at $1.25 on heavy volume of 205.7 million during the 14:00 UTC session, according to CoinGecko data. XRP later fell as low as $1.1858 before recovering modestly to stabilize near the $1.20 area.

The disconnect between institutional flows and spot price has been a defining feature of XRP's 2026 trading pattern. While ETF money keeps coming in — $4.13 million more flowed into XRP funds in early June even as prices fell — the token has struggled to hold support levels. XRP is down roughly 30% year-to-date and has traded in a range between $1.16 and $1.55 for most of the year.

Supply Dynamics vs. Price Action

The supply-side picture supports Pandl's thesis. More than 25 million XRP left exchanges in recent days, reducing readily available supply for sale, according to CryptoQuant data. Binance inflows fell to their lowest levels of 2026, a trend that would normally be supportive for prices over longer timeframes. Wallets holding over 10 million XRP now own 68.5% of the total supply, the highest concentration since May 2018, per Santiment data.

Yet the price has not responded. The breakdown below $1.25 shifted that level from support into resistance, meaning any recovery attempt now faces overhead selling pressure. The bounce from below $1.19 showed signs of short-term seller exhaustion, but follow-through buying remained weak.

What the CLARITY Act Means for the Thesis

Pandl's supply-lock forecast could accelerate if the Digital Assets CLARITY Act passes the Senate. The bill, which cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9 on May 14 and was placed on the Senate Legislative Calendar on June 1, would classify XRP as a commodity under the Mature Blockchain Test, stripping SEC jurisdiction and removing the regulatory uncertainty that has kept some institutional capital on the sidelines since 2020.

The White House is pushing for a full Senate vote before July 4, though Senate Republicans have reportedly shifted to eyeing a post-July 4 floor push. Senator Cynthia Lummis has warned that if the August recess arrives without a vote, the bill may not resurface until 2030.

For now, XRP's key support sits at $1.20 to $1.21. Losing that zone would expose the $1.13 to $1.15 area. On the upside, reclaiming $1.25 is the first step before a move toward $1.35, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.