Key Takeaways:
- Gold rebounded above $4,000/oz after PCE data showed sticky inflation
- Silver held below $60/oz as Fed rate hike expectations capped gains
- PCE inflation hit a three-year high, reinforcing hawkish Fed stance
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Gold rebounds above $4,000, silver near $60 after PCE data
Gold rose above $4,000 per ounce and silver held near $60 after the June PCE data pointed to persistent inflation pressures.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index reached its highest level in three years, according to Commerce Department data released June 26. "The inflation data confirms the Fed's cautious stance will persist through the second half of the year," said Omar Tariq, a commodities strategist.
Gold rebounded from key support levels after the release, while silver remained below the $60 threshold. The data showed inflation running above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target for a 30th consecutive month, with core PCE rising 0.3 percent month-over-month.
The Fed's next policy meeting in July will be the key test for precious metals, with markets pricing in a 65 percent probability of a quarter-point rate increase, according to CME FedWatch data. Gold at $4,000 compares to the all-time high of $4,200 set in April 2026, while silver's $60 level is 15 percent below its record of $70.
COMEX gold futures settled at $4,015.20 per ounce, up 1.2 percent on the session, after dipping to $3,950 earlier in the week. Silver futures on COMEX closed at $59.80 per ounce, up 0.8 percent, according to exchange data.
The PCE report showed the headline index rising 3.8 percent year-over-year in May, accelerating from 3.5 percent in April. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.6 percent, above the consensus estimate of 3.4 percent, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Gold's rebound from the $3,950 support level mirrors a pattern seen in March 2026, when prices bounced 3 percent after a similar inflation print. Silver's inability to break above $60 reflects the metal's higher sensitivity to industrial demand and rate expectations.
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 4.65 percent after the PCE release, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.3 percent, creating headwinds for precious metals. Compared to peers, gold's year-to-date gain of 18 percent trails platinum's 22 percent advance but outperforms palladium's 5 percent decline, according to Bloomberg data.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Gold and Silver Price Forecast: PCE Data Triggers Rebound from Support[2] Q1 GDP And May PCE: GDP Revisions Point To Slowing Domestic Demand As Inflation Persists[3] Gold hovers around $4,000, silver holds below $60 — has the shimmer worn off the precious metal rally?[4] GLD SPDR Gold Shares ETF[5] PCE Inflation Reached Its Highest Level in 3 Years. Here’s What Investors Need to Know.
