Gold futures found repeated support at $4,400 an ounce in recent weeks. A bullish pin bar formed in March near $4,200 and another last week, both respecting the $4,400 level. StoneX analyst Matt Simpson sees a potential rise toward $4,800 an ounce if support holds.
Gold futures found repeated support around $4,400 an ounce in recent weeks, with momentum indicators turning higher, according to StoneX data.
A long-legged bullish pin bar marked a prominent swing low near $4,200 an ounce in March and closed back above the $4,400 level, Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at StoneX, said. Another bullish pin bar formed last week, with its low once again respecting support around $4,400 an ounce, Simpson noted. The formation of two bullish pin bars within three months at the same support zone strengthens the technical case for a floor at that level. A bullish pin bar is a candlestick pattern characterized by a long lower wick and a small body near the top of the session's range, indicating that sellers pushed prices lower before buyers stepped in to drive prices back up.
Spot gold was flat at $4,487.39 an ounce as of 0102 GMT, while gold futures traded near similar levels. The repeated defense of the $4,400 level suggests the technical backdrop for gold futures has likely improved in recent weeks, Simpson said. Prices have found support at $4,400 on multiple occasions since the March low, with each test reinforcing the level's significance as a technical floor. The March pin bar closed firmly back above $4,400 after dipping to near $4,200, while last week's pin bar held above $4,400 entirely, suggesting buyers are becoming more aggressive at higher levels. Momentum indicators are now starting to turn higher, adding to the constructive outlook.
Gold bulls could target a potential rise toward $4,800 an ounce if the $4,400 support level holds, Simpson added. A break below $4,400 would negate the bullish setup and shift focus back to the March low near $4,200 an ounce. The $4,800 target represents potential upside of roughly 7% from current levels, while a drop below $4,400 would imply a decline of about 2%. The next major test for gold will be whether prices can hold above $4,400 through the upcoming US economic data releases, which could influence dollar direction and rate expectations. A sustained move above $4,500 would be the first signal that the rally toward $4,800 is underway.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
