Galaxy cuts CLARITY Act odds to 60% as Senate calendar tightens

Galaxy Digital's head of research, Alex Thorn, lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 60% from 75%, citing a Senate calendar that is shrinking faster than negotiators can resolve outstanding disputes over ethics and illicit finance provisions.

"The Senate calendar was one of the biggest hurdles, and that picture has worsened," Thorn wrote in a research note on June 5. He said the bill must clear the Senate before the August recess starting in late July, because "after that, the window effectively closes" as lawmakers turn to midterm campaigning.

The crypto market structure bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee on a 15-9 bipartisan vote on May 14 and reached the floor calendar as Calendar No. 423 on June 1. But it still lacks a scheduled floor vote. The Senate lost days to a fight over the administration's anti-weaponization fund, and a procedural vote to renew Section 702 of the surveillance law failed 47-52 on June 5. The authority expires June 12, meaning much of next week's floor time will go toward reauthorizing it rather than crypto legislation.

Why the window is closing

A floor vote would need roughly 60 votes to clear cloture. Thorn expects Republicans Josh Hawley and Rand Paul to vote no, leaving leadership needing at least nine Democrats to carry the bill across the floor. Ethics provisions and illicit finance rules remain unresolved, and Democrats have tied their support to the ethics language. No public deal has emerged on either issue.

"Majority Leader Thune realistically needs to schedule floor time at some point in July," Thorn said. "Anything later and the procedural steps do not fit before the recess."

Polymarket bettors see only a 54% chance the CLARITY Act will pass in 2026, down from a May high of around 74%. JPMorgan analysts said on June 3 they see less than a 50% chance of passage this year. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said his view is "less optimistic," adding that Washington insiders he spoke with put the odds between 5% and 30%.

Lummis pushes for floor time

Senator Cynthia Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, has escalated her calls for passage, making at least 15 posts on X about the legislation so far in June. "The Clarity Act passed committee. The floor is next. We did not come this far to quit at the 5 yard line," she posted on June 7.

Lummis told CNBC on June 3 that lawmakers are addressing the ethics and illicit finance concerns that could cost support on a floor vote. A credible commitment from Thune to schedule July floor time would likely push odds back up, Thorn said. Absent that, the next viable path narrows to a riskier September attempt — or, if the bill misses the midterm window entirely, a delay that Senator Lummis has warned could stretch to 2030.

The House passed its version of the bill last year. If the Senate cannot pass its own version before the recess, the legislative process would need to restart after the November elections, when the political landscape may look fundamentally different.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.