Fox Corp EBITDA estimate raised to $1.02B by UBS on World Cup boost

UBS raised its fiscal fourth-quarter EBITDA estimate for Fox Corp to about $1.02 billion, citing World Cup viewership and streaming momentum.

"The World Cup is providing a meaningful tailwind to Fox's advertising revenue, while Tubi's audience growth continues to accelerate," UBS analysts said in a note.

The new estimate represents a 9% increase from a year earlier and exceeds UBS's prior forecast of $1 billion. It also tops the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of $975 million by roughly 4.6%.

Fox is scheduled to report fiscal fourth-quarter results in the coming weeks. The revision suggests the company could deliver its strongest quarterly advertising revenue since the 2022 World Cup, with Tubi's ad-supported streaming model adding incremental upside to the traditional broadcast business.

The improved outlook is supported by robust World Cup viewership across Fox's broadcast and cable networks, which has driven higher advertising demand during the tournament. Fox holds rights to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, one of the most-watched sporting events globally, putting it in direct competition with Comcast's NBCUniversal and Walt Disney Co. for sports advertising dollars. The quadrennial event typically generates billions of dollars in ad spending across broadcast and digital platforms.

Improving ratings at Fox News have also contributed to the upward revision. The network has seen a rebound in viewership following the 2024 election cycle, providing a stable base of advertising revenue alongside the event-driven World Cup boost. Fox News remains the highest-rated cable news network, commanding a significant share of political and news advertising.

Tubi, Fox's free ad-supported streaming platform, continues to gain traction with viewers and advertisers. The platform's growing audience base has made it an increasingly important contributor to Fox's overall advertising revenue, complementing the company's traditional broadcast and cable businesses. Tubi's ad revenue has grown at a double-digit pace in recent quarters as cord-cutting accelerates.

The estimate revision positions Fox for a stronger-than-expected quarterly report. Investors will watch the company's forward guidance for signs of sustained advertising momentum beyond the World Cup, particularly at Tubi and Fox News. Fox's ability to retain World Cup-era advertisers through the fiscal first quarter will be a key metric for the stock's near-term direction.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.