Key Takeaways:
Ethereum is testing a make-or-break support zone as derivatives data and exchange flows paint a picture of a market that has already flushed much of its leverage.
Ethereum's futures open interest has fallen 25% since May to $12.6 billion, while nearly 480,000 ETH has been withdrawn from major exchange reserves, according to CryptoQuant data. The combination of collapsing leverage and shrinking readily available supply has placed fresh attention on the cryptocurrency's ability to hold above the $1,500 level.
"Total ETH futures open interest across exchanges has dropped to $12.6 billion from $16.6 billion recorded in May," Amr Taha, an analyst at CryptoQuant, said. The decline has pushed activity on several major platforms back to levels last seen in April 2025, showing that a large portion of leveraged positions has already been cleared from the market.
Gate.io recorded the steepest contraction, with open interest falling to $2.68 billion on June 9 from $4.84 billion on May 7, a decline of about 45%. Bybit experienced a similar reset, with open interest near $805 million compared with roughly $795 million in early April. A different picture emerged on Binance, where open interest remains around $2.76 billion while funding rates have turned negative to approximately -0.0047, indicating short sellers are paying to maintain their positions.
The $1,500 level represents the last major demand zone before a potential move toward $1,000, according to multiple analysts tracking the market. A weekly close above $1,500 would preserve a historically important support zone, while a sustained break below that level could bring the next major support region near $1,000 into focus, Ash Crypto, an analyst and investor, noted on X.
Exchange reserves drop as supply tightens
Beyond derivatives markets, exchange reserves have also moved lower. Data tracking Binance, OKX, Gemini, and Bitfinex shows roughly 480,000 ETH left those platforms over the past few days. Binance's reserves declined to 3.65 million ETH on June 9 from 3.87 million ETH on June 4. Bitfinex holdings fell to 2.50 million ETH from 2.67 million ETH at the end of May. OKX posted the largest percentage drop, with reserves decreasing from 424,000 ETH to about 336,000 ETH, while Gemini's balance slipped to roughly 522,000 ETH.
Lower exchange balances can reduce the readily available supply if demand begins to return. Yet price action remains under pressure as macroeconomic uncertainty weighs on risk assets. Over the past seven days, ETH has lost about 12% and was trading near $1,628 at the time of writing. The daily chart shows ETH trading beneath its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, a structure that points to continued weakness. The 20-day EMA near $1,848 now represents the first major recovery hurdle, while the 50-day EMA around $2,025 sits higher as another resistance zone.
Momentum indicators have entered deeply oversold territory. The daily relative strength index has fallen to around 25, a level that often accompanies periods of heavy selling pressure. Even so, no confirmed bullish divergence has appeared on the chart, leaving traders focused on whether support can hold.
CPI data looms as rate hike odds climb
Adding to the uncertainty, markets are awaiting the latest US Consumer Price Index report. Following stronger-than-expected US jobs data last week, expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike by December have risen to roughly 70%. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading could push those odds above 80%, increasing pressure on risk assets such as Ethereum as investors rotate toward yield-bearing instruments, including short-dated US Treasuries. A softer inflation print could provide relief for crypto markets and help ETH attempt another move toward the $1,700 to $1,850 range.
On-chain data cited by market commentator Gonza Goth shows only 11% of Ethereum's supply is currently sitting on gains of three times or more, the lowest level since February 2017. According to Goth, periods of extreme pessimism have historically coincided with attractive opportunities for long-term investors.
The setup mirrors conditions seen in June 2022, when Ethereum broke through successive support levels before eventually bottoming near $880, according to Ash Crypto. That turned out to be the exact bottom of the entire bear market. Whether history repeats depends on whether the $1,500 level holds through the CPI release and into the weekly close.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
