The exchange ratio between Ethereum and Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) dropped to a 10-month low of 0.02835, as sustained capital inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds continue to reshape the market structure in favor of the original cryptocurrency.
"A golden cross between the $BTC MVRV Ratio and the 200D EMA line is imminent," CryptoQuant analyst CW8900 said in a post on X. "This signal is a representative trend reversal signal and is a bullish indicator."
The ratio's decline represents a more than 35 percent drop from its peak in August 2025. While Ethereum has seen its own spot ETFs approved and trading in the U.S. since 2024, the inflows have not matched the scale of those for Bitcoin. According to Forbes, Bitcoin and Ethereum now represent 60 percent and 10 percent of the crypto market, respectively. As of May 12, 2026, Ethereum's price was $2,289, down 11 percent year-over-year, while Bitcoin's price was down 22 percent over the same period, though recent momentum has been strongly in Bitcoin's favor.
This trend suggests that as long as institutional demand for Bitcoin via ETFs remains strong, Ethereum may continue to underperform its larger peer. The "golden cross" for Bitcoin's MVRV ratio, a signal that preceded a 400 percent bull run to a high of $126,000 in October 2025, suggests that the capital rotation could intensify. The next key indicator will be whether the approval and trading of more sophisticated Ethereum-based financial products can reverse this trend.
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 marked a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market, providing a regulated and accessible way for institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin. This has led to a significant inflow of capital into Bitcoin, strengthening its position as the market leader.
While the approval of Ethereum spot ETFs was also a significant milestone, the "first-mover" advantage of the Bitcoin ETFs appears to be a decisive factor. The market is now watching to see if Ethereum's broader utility in decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) can create a new narrative to attract a similar level of institutional interest.
Analysts remain bullish on Bitcoin, with some predicting a "supercycle" rally toward $180,000-$250,000. This outlook is supported by technical indicators like the MVRV ratio and strong institutional demand. For Ethereum, the challenge will be to capture a larger share of the institutional capital that is now flowing into the crypto market.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
