CLARITY Act stalls at 40% passage odds as Bitcoin cements safe-haven status

The CLARITY Act, the most consequential crypto market structure bill in US history, has a 40% chance of passing this year — and Bitcoin is the only token that does not need it.

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which passed the House 294-134 on July 17, 2025, remains stuck in the Senate with roughly 20 working days before the August recess, Polymarket data shows a 40% probability of enactment in 2026. The bill would settle whether digital assets fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction — a question that determines registration, custody, and listing requirements for every institutional participant in the US market.

"The CLARITY Act is the closest crypto has ever come to a federal market structure framework, and its failure now could defer legislation until 2030," Senator Cynthia Lummis, the Wyoming Republican who helped draft the bill, said in a statement. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has prioritized the National Defense Authorization Act for the week of July 13, pushing any CLARITY floor vote toward late July.

Republicans hold 53 seats but Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul are expected to vote no, leaving leadership needing at least seven Democratic crossovers to reach the 60-vote threshold. Only two Democrats — Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland — voted for the bill in the Banking Committee's 15-9 markup on May 14, and both said their support was conditional. Four disputes remain unresolved: ethics provisions targeting officials' crypto holdings after President Trump disclosed $1.4 billion in crypto-related income, law enforcement objections to Section 604's shield for non-custodial software developers, banking industry pushback on stablecoin yield loopholes, and CFTC staffing shortfalls — the agency operates with one commissioner against four vacancies.

Bitcoin, with a market cap of $1.29 trillion, is already classified as a commodity by both the SEC and CFTC, meaning it does not depend on the CLARITY Act for regulatory clarity. The token's spot ETFs, approved in early 2024, have accumulated $1.48 billion in net inflows year-to-date, providing institutional investors a regulated vehicle that functions regardless of congressional action. Its capped supply of 21 million — with more than 20 million already mined — positions it as the crypto sector's primary safe-haven asset as regulatory uncertainty persists for altcoins including XRP and Solana.

Why Bitcoin benefits from regulatory gridlock

The CLARITY Act's stalling creates a two-tier market. Tokens like XRP, which rely on the bill to lock their commodity classification into statute, face continued classification risk — a court ruling can be reversed by the next administration, making it difficult for banks and custodians to build durable compliance programs. XRP is down roughly 40% this year to near $1, caught between a market-wide selloff and the bill's uncertain timeline. Bitcoin faces no such status uncertainty, and its ETF structure has drawn steady demand even as the broader crypto market declined.

The Senate clock is running

The Senate leaves for its August recess around August 7, and the House is in session only through July 23. Once Congress returns in September, roughly three weeks of session remain before lawmakers enter full campaign mode ahead of the midterm elections. Lummis has warned that failure in this window could push market structure legislation to 2030.

Other jurisdictions are not waiting. South Africa's Financial Sector Conduct Authority has already approved 300 crypto asset service provider licenses out of 512 applications under a defined statutory framework, while the US still lacks a permanent answer to the foundational question of which regulator governs which digital asset. For compliance officers and institutional investors, the message is clear: Bitcoin's regulatory clarity is already law, while everything else depends on a Senate clock that is running out.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.