Citi slashes bitcoin target to $82,000 on zero ETF inflow forecast

Bitcoin fell to $58,864, its lowest since September 2024, after Citigroup cut its 12-month price target to $82,000 and zeroed out its ETF inflow forecast.

"ETF flows, an important driver of prices, have turned negative recently," Citi said in a research note dated Tuesday, adding that bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows of approximately $3.3 billion since the start of the year.

The bank lowered its bitcoin forecast by 27 percent to $82,000 from $112,000 and cut its ether target by 29 percent to $2,240 from $3,175. Citi's bear-case scenario, which assumes a recessionary macroeconomic backdrop and continued ETF withdrawals, values bitcoin at $53,000 and ether at $1,094 over the next 12 months.

The downgrade marks the second such revision from Citi this year, following a March 2026 cut that reduced its bitcoin target from $143,000 to $112,000. The bank cited stalled progress on the US Digital Asset Market Clarity Act and concerns that digital asset treasury companies could increase bitcoin sales as additional headwinds.

Citi attributed the weaker outlook to three compounding factors: persistent ETF outflows, fading prospects for near-term US crypto legislation, and capital rotation toward artificial intelligence-related investments. The bank said it expects broader investor adoption to remain on hold until a new catalyst emerges.

The reset to zero net ETF inflows represents a dramatic reversal from the $10 billion Citi had previously projected. Bitcoin ETFs attracted significant inflows through much of 2024 and early 2025, but those flows have reversed as macroeconomic uncertainty and competing investment themes have drawn capital away from digital assets.

Bitcoin has fallen roughly 50 percent from its all-time high of $126,223 reached in October 2025. Ether traded at $1,585.63, its weakest level since April 2025. Both cryptocurrencies are trading below their long-term moving averages, reflecting sustained bearish pressure.

Academic research has found that ETF flows have a measurable effect on cryptocurrency prices. A quantitative study using daily flow data for the five largest US spot bitcoin ETFs found that every $100 million of net ETF inflow is associated with a same-day bitcoin price move of roughly 53 basis points, with the cumulative impact reaching nearly 96 basis points after 10 trading days. Separate cointegration research analyzing bitcoin ETF assets and prices between January 2024 and May 2025 found a statistically significant long-run positive relationship between expanding ETF assets and higher bitcoin valuations.

For investors, the downgrade signals that the inflow-driven rally that pushed bitcoin to its October 2025 record high is unlikely to resume in the near term. Citi's revised forecast implies limited upside from current levels even in its base case, while the bear scenario suggests further downside of roughly 10 percent if ETF outflows persist and economic conditions deteriorate.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.