Key Takeaways:
- Citi maintained its zero-to-three-month gold price target at $4,500 per ounce
- India's gold imports remained subdued in 3Q26 amid ample scrap supply and cautious demand
- Spot gold traded at $4,079.34 per ounce, 10.3% below Citi's target
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Citi maintains gold target at $4,500 as India imports stay subdued
Citi Research kept its short-term gold price forecast at $4,500 per ounce, a 10.3% premium to the current spot price of $4,079.34, as subdued Indian import demand and easing geopolitical risks shape the near-term outlook for the precious metal.
"India's gold imports were estimated to remain subdued in 3Q26 despite the quarter historically being a seasonal restocking peak period," Citi said in a note, attributing the weakness to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment and discounts in local prices that dampened fresh import demand.
The $4,500 target for the next zero to three months assumes easing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, the bank said. Gold has risen 22.24% over the past 12 months from $3,337.11 per ounce but remains 25.53% below its 52-week high of $5,477.79 set in late January. The all-time high stands at $5,597.23, reached on Jan. 29, 2026, according to market data.
Citi flagged multiple short-term risks that could trigger another decline, including a re-escalation of geopolitical tensions, AI-driven de-risking activities and the Fed maintaining a hawkish policy stance. The bank's base case implies Indian gold imports will stay weak through the third quarter, extending a trend that has weighed on physical demand in one of the world's largest gold-consuming nations. Spot gold traded at $4,079.34 as of 12:05 p.m. ET on July 27, up 0.66% from the prior close of $4,052.72, with the 52-week low at $3,284.65 providing a floor for the market.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
