China gold reserves may surpass US within 5 years on buying spree

China's gold reserves could surpass those of the United States within five years if the People's Bank of China maintains its current buying pace, a shift that would reshape the global reserve asset hierarchy and accelerate de-dollarization.

"The PBOC's sustained gold purchases reflect a strategic pivot away from dollar-denominated reserves, and at current rates, China could close the gap with the US within half a decade," said Elena Fischer, geopolitical risk analyst at Edgen.

The US holds 8,133.5 metric tons of gold, the largest sovereign gold reserve globally, according to World Gold Council data. China's official reserves stand at roughly 2,280 metric tons, though analysts estimate the true figure may be higher when including gold held by entities such as the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The PBOC has reported gold purchases for 18 consecutive months through June 2026, adding an average of about 20 metric tons per month.

A Chinese reserve surpassing the US would mark the first time since 1952 that the top spot has changed hands and would signal a fundamental shift in the architecture of global reserve assets. The US has held the largest gold reserve since the Bretton Woods era, when the dollar was backed by gold. China's accumulation comes as it reduces holdings of US Treasuries, which fell to $775 billion as of May 2026, down from a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013.

The De-Dollarization Dimension

The PBOC's gold buying is part of a broader trend among central banks in emerging economies to diversify away from the dollar. Central banks globally purchased 1,037 metric tons of gold in 2025, the second-highest annual total on record, led by China, Poland and India. The share of dollar-denominated reserves held by global central banks has fallen to 57 percent, the lowest in three decades, from 71 percent in 2000, according to IMF data.

Gold prices have rallied 32 percent over the past 12 months to trade near $2,850 an ounce, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty. A sustained Chinese accumulation program could add further upward pressure, with some analysts projecting gold could test $3,200 within two years if PBOC buying continues at current levels.

What a Reserve Shift Would Mean for Markets

If China's gold reserves overtake those of the US, the symbolic and practical implications would be significant. The dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency has long been underpinned in part by America's dominant gold holdings. A shift in that ranking could accelerate reserve diversification among other central banks, potentially weakening the dollar and boosting demand for gold and other alternative reserve assets.

The PBOC's next reserve data release, expected in early August, will provide the latest signal on whether the buying pace is accelerating or moderating. Any increase above the recent monthly average of 20 metric tons would strengthen the case that China is on track to surpass the US within the five-year window.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.