Key Takeaways:
CATL's Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi province published its environmental impact assessment public consultation draft on July 27, ending a six-month regulatory stalemate.
"The EIA public consultation is a procedural step toward resuming full operations," said a person familiar with the process, speaking on condition of anonymity because the review is ongoing.
The mine, suspended in August 2025 after its operating license expired during a broader environmental crackdown in Yichun, contains an estimated 960 million tonnes of porcelain stone ore equivalent to roughly 2.66 million tonnes of lithium oxide. At full capacity, it can produce 100,000 to 150,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent annually, supplying about 3% of global lithium output and 8% to 10% of China's domestic production.
The EIA timeline means full compliance production is unlikely before late September at the earliest, tempering expectations of an imminent supply surge. Lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange traded at 136,800 yuan ($20,210) per tonne, near a five-month low, as the market had already priced in the mine's potential restart.
The consultation draft, published on Yichun's bidding website, invites public feedback before CATL submits a formal application to environmental authorities. After submission, regulators have at least 10 working days to review the application, followed by five working days of public notice before a decision.
The mine's restart timeline has been a key variable in lithium supply forecasts. Global lithium production is projected to grow 26% year-over-year to 2.16 million tonnes in 2026 and a further 27% to 2.74 million tonnes in 2027, according to industry data. The return of CATL's mine would add to a wave of supply restarts across Australia, where Mineral Resources has resumed operations at Bald Hill and Wodgina, and Core Lithium has restarted its Finniss project.
On the demand side, global EV sales are projected to reach 23 million to 24 million units in 2026, accounting for nearly 30% of new vehicle registrations. Utility-scale battery storage deployments rose 40% year-over-year to a record 108 to 112 gigawatts last year, creating a fast-growing new source of lithium demand.
The Spodumene Concentrate 6% Li2O Index CIF China stood at $2,075 per tonne, according to Metal.com data.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
