Bitcoin Rebounds Past Pre-Strike Levels After Initial Plunge
Bitcoin’s price executed a sharp V-shaped recovery over the weekend, functioning as a real-time barometer for global risk sentiment after an Israeli airstrike on February 28 reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. The digital asset, one of the few markets open 24/7, initially dropped on the news but quickly reversed its losses.
As official reports appeared to confirm the high-level casualties, Bitcoin’s price not only recovered but pushed above levels seen before the conflict escalated. This powerful rebound is being interpreted by market strategists as a positive signal, indicating that investor risk appetite is proving resilient to the significant geopolitical development.
Asset Acts as Geopolitical Barometer for Third Time
This event marks the third instance in recent years where Bitcoin has served as a live indicator for market sentiment during a major weekend conflict in the Middle East. According to Peter Tchir, a strategist at Academy Securities, Bitcoin’s initial reaction has historically been a sharp decline, as seen during conflicts on April 13, 2024, and June 21-22, 2025.
The crucial difference in this latest incident is the speed and strength of the recovery. Tchir notes that the asset's ability to fully rebound and rally higher signals a distinct shift in market psychology. He views the price action as a clear "risk-on" signal, suggesting that investors are looking past the immediate shock.
Oil’s $12 Price Rise Already Accounts for Geopolitical Risk
The potential for a spike in energy prices remains a key variable for the global economy. However, the oil market appears to have already factored in a substantial risk premium. Brent crude prices rose from approximately $60 per barrel at the end of last year to $72 per barrel by last Friday, partly in anticipation of regional tensions.
Strategists believe this pre-emptive pricing will cushion the immediate impact on oil markets. Tchir stated that with no current signs of disruption to key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz and ample global crude reserves, a catastrophic price surge is unlikely. He anticipates Brent could test the $80 per barrel level but does not foresee a major disruption, supporting an optimistic outlook for the market opening on Monday.
