Glassnode identified Bitcoin's short-term holder cost basis near $69,000 as the market's next major recovery test, a level that could determine whether XRP reaches $1.26.
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Bitcoin's $69K test could open XRP's path to $1.26
Bitcoin traded near $64,720 as of 07:00 UTC on Jul. 17, holding below the $69,000 threshold after briefly reclaiming $65,000 following cooler US inflation data. The June consumer price index fell 0.4%, with annual inflation cooling to 3.5%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The macro relief did not remove overhead supply.
"Currently, more than 65% of exchange inflows are attributable to long-term holders realizing losses, a reading consistent with prior bear market phases where this cohort dominated the sell side," Glassnode said in its Week 28 on-chain report.
Long-term holder realized-loss volume has declined from its recent peak two weeks ago, suggesting the strongest distribution pressure may be easing. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $181 million on Jul. 14 and $108 million on Jul. 15, according to SoSoValue, though the inflows remain sporadic. About $4.5 billion in call open interest sits between $70,000 and $80,000 on Deribit, creating overlapping resistance with the short-term holder cost basis.
The $69,000 level represents the aggregate acquisition price of recent buyers and a broad dividing line between profit and loss. A convincing reclaim would move a large share of short-term holders back into profit, while rejection would keep the same cohort underwater and extend the conditions for continued loss realization.
Why XRP's path depends on the ratio
XRP's dollar price tends to follow Bitcoin's moves, making the XRP/BTC ratio the cleaner gauge of whether capital is rotating into the token specifically. The ratio currently sits near 0.0000171, down from about 0.0000185 a month ago, a decline of roughly 7.8% against Bitcoin during a stretch when XRP's dollar price has moved around $1.09.
Holding XRP's current ratio constant, a Bitcoin move to $69,000 mechanically prices XRP near $1.18 to $1.19. If XRP repeats the outperformance it showed during Bitcoin's early-July rebound — when it gained roughly 11.3% against Bitcoin's 7.7% — the implied price rises to about $1.22. Reclaiming the XRP/BTC ratio of 0.0000183 from Jul. 4 with Bitcoin at $69,000 would push XRP toward $1.25 to $1.26.
Bitcoin dominance sits near 58.4% of a roughly $2.2 trillion crypto market, a split that keeps XRP's upside tied to Bitcoin clearing its own hurdle first. Ten-year real yields near a 2026 high around 2.4% and the dollar holding above its 200-day average have deepened Bitcoin's inverse relationship with the greenback.
If Bitcoin rejects $69,000, or clears the level with XRP/BTC still sliding below 0.000017, XRP could fail to reach even the $1.18 baseline. That outcome would confirm XRP is still riding the market's tide in dollar terms alone, with no genuine rotation into the token.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Bitcoin reclaiming its $69,000 holder cost basis could open XRP's path to $1.26[2] Bitcoin Holds Near $65K As Long-Term Holders Slow Their Selling | Yellow[3] Bitcoin buyers and bagholders are both selling into the rebound below $70,000[4] Bitcoin reclaiming its $69,000 holder cost basis could open XRP’s path to $1.26[5] Bitcoin’s old coins have gone quiet and $69,000 could reveal whether the new holders crack
