Bitcoin's failure to reclaim $60,000 even as the S&P 500 surged on a U.S.-Iran peace deal reveals a divergence driven by persistent ETF redemptions and macro headwinds specific to crypto markets.
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Bitcoin stays below $60,000 as stocks rally on peace, ETF outflows persist
Bitcoin's failure to reclaim $60,000 even as the S&P 500 surged on a U.S.-Iran peace deal reveals a divergence driven by persistent ETF redemptions and macro headwinds specific to crypto markets.
Bitcoin traded at $59,075 as of 09:40 UTC on June 29, down 1.4% in 24 hours and nearly 7% on the week, according to CoinGecko data. The token has now declined roughly 12% in the second quarter after a 22% drop in the first, putting it on track for back-to-back losing quarters — a pattern that has occurred only twice in its history. The S&P 500, by contrast, rose 1.65% on Friday after peace headlines between the U.S. and Iran eased oil prices, widening the gap between equity and crypto performance.
"The divergence is a liquidity story, not a risk-on versus risk-off one," said Nina Volkov, crypto macro analyst at Edgen. "Equities are rallying because lower oil acts as a tax cut. Crypto is bleeding because ETF outflows create a mechanical selling pressure that no macro headline can reverse."
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have hemorrhaged $4.06 billion in net outflows this month, making June the worst month for the products since their January 2024 debut, according to data from The Block. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone saw roughly $1.3 billion exit in a concentrated five-day stretch. Total assets across all spot Bitcoin ETFs have declined to approximately $72.82 billion. The Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, is signaling a capitulation phase, with a significant number of long-term holders now selling at a loss.
The macro backdrop has compounded the pressure. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in his first speech since taking office, described inflation as a "choice," a comment markets interpreted as hawkish. Fed funds futures now price in a potential rate increase of as much as 50 basis points this year, a sharp reversal from earlier expectations of one or two cuts. The U.S. dollar is near a seven-month high, and the Fear and Greed Index sits at 19, indicating extreme fear among crypto investors.
On-chain data offers a more nuanced picture. Whale addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC accumulated 30,000 tokens this month, while wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC sold 40,000 tokens, according to Santander data cited by Santiment. The net effect was zero change in total whale holdings, suggesting large holders have not yet made a decisive directional bet. Bitcoin's next major support sits at $50,000, with historical bear market patterns pointing to a potential bottom near $45,000 if the current weakness persists into the third quarter.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Bitcoin Under $60K: Why Peace Headlines Lift Stocks but Leave BTC Frozen[2] Bitcoin falls below $60,000, on track for a rare back-to-back quarterly loss - CoinDesk[3] Bitcoin remains below key onchain and technical levels, leaving it in no man's land - CoinDesk[4] Bitcoin Price News: $60K Retest Will Determine BTC’s Future[5] Bitcoin native ETFs see $4B in net outflows this month, marking worst month since launch
