Bitcoin slides below $60,000 to cycle low as Grayscale weighs in

Bitcoin fell 3% to $60,892 on June 9, breaching $60,000 for the first time this cycle as geopolitical tensions and persistent ETF outflows crushed demand.

"Bitcoin is now trading near its production cost of roughly $62,650, a level that has historically marked a long-term value zone," Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, said. "A break below that opens the door to the electrical-cost floor near $50,000."

The selloff accelerated after President Donald Trump announced retaliatory military strikes against Iran, sending gold up 1.8% and WTI crude 3.5% higher while risk assets slumped. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw roughly $4.4 billion in net outflows between mid-May and early June, with total ETF assets declining from more than $100 billion to below $80 billion, according to Wintermute. Bitcoin's realized price — the average cost basis of all holders — sits near $53,600, and the MVRV pricing model's deep-value band points to $50,000 as the next major magnet.

A decisive break below $60,000 would expose Bitcoin to the $50,000-to-$53,600 on-chain support cluster, where both the realized price and the electrical-cost floor converge. On the upside, a liquidity cluster between $62,500 and $64,000 could fuel a short-covering bounce toward the mid-$63,000 region, according to Coinglass liquidation data.

On-Chain Models Flag $50,000 as Next Floor

Bitcoin's production cost model, shared by Capriole Investments, shows the asset trading near its estimated mining cost of $62,650. The lower boundary — the electrical cost estimate — sits near $50,120, a level that has historically acted as a major valuation floor during bear-market corrections, the chart shows.

The MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands from Glassnode reinforce that view. Bitcoin is already trading below the model's lower valuation band of $72,035, with the next major magnet sitting at the deep-value band near $50,000 — a level that also aligns with the realized price of $53,600. Historically, Bitcoin has not formed a major cycle bottom without first trading below the realized price, according to analyst Follis. The current cycle has spent zero days below that level, compared with 179 days in 2022.

On the weekly chart, Bitcoin is testing the 200-week simple moving average near $62,000. A decisive weekly close below that level would confirm a bearish setup, with the measured downside target sitting under $50,000, according to TradingView data.

ETF Outflows Deepen as Macro Headwinds Mount

Institutional demand has continued to deteriorate. Wintermute reported that US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced roughly $4.4 billion in net outflows between mid-May and early June, while total ETF assets fell from more than $100 billion to below $80 billion. The trading firm noted that capital has increasingly flowed into artificial intelligence-related investments and preparations for the anticipated SpaceX IPO, creating additional competition for investor funds.

Rising Treasury yields have added to the pressure, with traders pricing out expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts after the May Consumer Price Index report due June 10. Higher-for-longer yields reduce demand for speculative assets, compounding the headwinds from the geopolitical escalation.

Grayscale's analysis of whether Bitcoin is undervalued at current levels comes as the asset trades below every major moving average — the 20-day EMA at $67,876, the 50-day at $71,917, the 100-day at $74,191 and the 200-day at $79,394. The cryptocurrency briefly bounced to $62,000 in afternoon trading on June 10 as US equities recovered from session lows, though analysts cautioned that the rebound does not erase downside risks.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.