More than 95% of short-term Bitcoin holders are sitting on losses, with on-chain data showing no institutional demand response to absorb the selling pressure.
Back
Bitcoin short-term holders 95% underwater as STH-MVRV hits 0.83
Bitcoin traded at $66,200 as of 08:00 UTC on June 16, up 2.3%, with Glassnode showing over 95% of short-term holders underwater after the STH-MVRV ratio dropped to 0.83.
"The magnitude of unrealized losses among recent buyers is extreme by historical standards, and we have yet to see a meaningful demand response from institutional or corporate treasury desks," Glassnode said in its weekly on-chain report published June 11.
The STH-MVRV ratio, which tracks the average profit or loss of coins moved within the past 155 days, recovered slightly to 0.83 from a low of 0.81. A reading below 1.0 means the average short-term holder is sitting on a loss. Buyers who accumulated Bitcoin in May are down 17% to 19%, according to the report. Bitcoin's market capitalization stood at $1.31 trillion, with a dominance of 54.2% across the crypto market.
The lack of institutional buying leaves the market vulnerable to forced selling if Bitcoin breaks below $64,000 support, a level that has held since early June. A recovery above $67,000 to $68,000 resistance would be needed to shift the short-term structure.
Whale Accumulation Offers a Counter-Signal
Despite the bearish short-term holder picture, on-chain data shows signs of large-scale accumulation. Whales withdrew more than 11,000 Bitcoin from exchanges over the past week, according to Arkham Intelligence data cited by Mudrex, a sign of reduced selling pressure among large holders. Strategy, the corporate Bitcoin treasury firm formerly known as MicroStrategy, added 1,587 Bitcoin to its holdings during the same period.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $86 million in net inflows on June 12, the first meaningful inflow after an extended period of outflows, according to data from WazirX's markets desk. The return of institutional demand through the ETF channel could provide a buffer against further downside if sustained.
The Macro Context
The improved risk sentiment followed the announcement of a US-Iran peace framework, which helped ease geopolitical concerns and supported a broader recovery in risk assets. Brent crude fell 5% to $83 a barrel, while the US dollar index softened, creating a more favorable macro backdrop for Bitcoin. However, oil prices remaining above $80 keep inflation risk alive, limiting how dovish central banks can become in the near term.
Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume stood at approximately $28 billion as of 08:00 UTC, below the seven-day average, suggesting the recovery lacks conviction. Open interest across major exchanges held steady at $34 billion, with funding rates near neutral at 0.003%, indicating no directional bias among derivatives traders.
The key level to watch is $67,000, where the 200-period exponential moving average on the four-hour chart converges with high-volume trading from early June. A decisive break above that level could open the path toward $68,500 to $70,000. On the downside, a loss of $64,000 would likely trigger a retest of the $60,000 zone, where Bitcoin found support earlier this month.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
