Key Takeaways:
A weekly relative strength index bullish divergence on Bitcoin mirrors the pattern that marked the $15,600 bear market floor in 2022, as the largest cryptocurrency by market cap held above $60,000.
"The bullish RSI divergence on the Bitcoin chart has now been officially confirmed," Lukasz Wydra, a crypto analyst, said. "It may still deepen, but at the same time we can clearly see that Binance continues to defend the price."
The four-hour RSI fell to 11.4 at the start of June, one of its lowest readings on record, before the divergence began forming. On weekly time frames, the pattern echoes the setup that preceded BTC/USD setting its bear-market low of $15,600 in 2022 — an event that subsequently provided a durable market floor, pseudonymous trader Rod noted in a post on X. "Once you see it, you can't unsee it," he wrote. "It's 2022 again."
The divergence sets up a potential relief rally into July, a month that historically contrasts with June price action, according to pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital. But a confirmed break of the 50-month exponential moving average as new resistance could lead to "August cancellation of relief and additional downside due to $60,000 weakening as support," he wrote this week.
Other traders maintained calls for further downside before any sustained recovery. Niels Klaver, cofounder of crypto platform STABL Agency, repeated expectations for a trip to $55,000 "before any big move" to change the status quo.
The conflicting signals leave Bitcoin at a technical crossroads. The weekly RSI divergence provides a historically reliable floor signal — the same pattern preceded the 2022 cycle bottom that held for more than two years. Yet the 50-month EMA now sits above price as resistance for the first time in that cycle, and the $60,000 level has already been tested multiple times this month. A decisive break below that threshold would invalidate the bullish divergence and open the path toward $55,000, while a weekly close above the 50-month EMA would confirm the reversal and set up a challenge of all-time highs.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
