Galaxy Predicts Bitcoin Could Test $56,000 Realized Price
Galaxy Digital Research Lead Alex Thorn forecasts a "significant chance" that Bitcoin could fall to its realized price of $56,000 in the coming weeks. The analysis comes as Bitcoin trades just under $78,500, a level that is 39% below its all-time high of over $126,000 set in early October. Thorn suggests the asset may first test a supply gap at $70,000 before a potential further decline.
Thorn identified two critical technical levels that have historically marked cycle bottoms and provided strong entry points for investors. The first is Bitcoin's 200-week moving average, currently sitting at $58,000. The second is the asset's realized price of $56,000, which represents the average cost at which all circulating BTC were acquired. Bitcoin has historically found strong support at or slightly below these levels during previous bear markets.
Weak Catalysts and Holder Apathy Weigh on Price
The bearish outlook is reinforced by an absence of clear drivers to spark a rally. Thorn noted that "catalysts remain hard to find," highlighting Bitcoin's recent failure to trade in line with gold and silver as part of a broader "debasement hedge trade." Furthermore, the potential for a near-term boost from U.S. crypto regulation appears diminished, as Thorn states the odds of a market structure bill passing have faded.
On-chain data presents a mixed picture. There is "little evidence of significant accumulation" from large buyers, suggesting sophisticated investors may be waiting for lower prices. However, profit-taking from long-term holders has "begun to notably abate." While this could signal that selling pressure is easing and a bottom is approaching, Thorn cautions that some holders may simply be waiting for higher prices to exit their positions.
