Bitcoin bounced 2% after the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes, but analysts warn the relief rally may be short-lived as technical weakness persists.
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Bitcoin rises 2% to $59,856 as US-Iran truce eases geopolitical risk
Bitcoin bounced 2% after the US and Iran agreed to halt strikes, but analysts warn the relief rally may be short-lived as technical weakness persists.
Bitcoin rose 2% to $59,856 after the US and Iran agreed to suspend military strikes and resume peace talks in Doha, Qatar.
"The relief rally does not change the underlying technical damage," said Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous crypto analyst. "Bitcoin failed to break above $61,000 for the fourth consecutive day, and that level remains the key resistance to watch."
The price jumped from a 24-hour low of $58,856 to an intraday high of $60,089, with trading volume rising 24%, according to CoinGecko data as of 01:00 UTC. The move followed reports that Washington and Tehran agreed to halt attacks and renew negotiations in the Qatari capital, Axios reported June 29. The escalation had intensified after Iran targeted a container ship carrying Qatari oil, prompting US retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites and Iranian counterstrikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.
Despite the truce, analysts flagged persistent bearish signals. Bitcoin recorded its lowest daily close since 2024 and its first close below the 200-week moving average since 2023, according to analysts Benjamin Cowen and Cheds Trading. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, noted that his Bitcoin trend model turned bearish on May 22 when BTC traded at $75,600 and has remained bearish since. Rekt Capital identified $61,000 as the key resistance level, with a failure to break above it for four consecutive sessions suggesting the path of least resistance remains lower.
The US-Iran agreement marks a temporary de-escalation after both sides traded strikes over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that once carried a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas. Under a memorandum of understanding signed earlier this month, both sides gave themselves 60 days to resolve disputes including shipping arrangements in the strait, sanctions relief and the future of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile. The truce sent oil prices lower, with Brent crude falling to multi-month lows as tankers began clearing the waterway.
For Bitcoin, the geopolitical relief provided a short-term bid, but macro headwinds remain. The Federal Reserve has flagged potential rate hikes to combat persistent inflation, with fed funds futures pricing in a higher chance of tightening. Higher rates typically reduce appetite for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's market cap stood at approximately $1.18 trillion, with its dominance rate near 52%, according to CoinGecko.
The next key test for Bitcoin comes with the monthly close on June 30. Rekt Capital said the close would reveal levels where a potential July relief rally could start. A failure to reclaim $61,000 could open the door to a retest of the $55,000 to $57,000 range, levels not seen since early 2024.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
