Seller Panic Subsides as Realized Losses Drop to 3,700 BTC
Bitcoin reclaimed the critical $70,000 level on Monday, signaling a notable shift in market sentiment. This price strength developed even as geopolitical tensions persisted. On-chain data from March 1 shows that sell-pressure from recent buyers has cooled considerably, with realized losses from short-term holders (STHs) transferred to exchanges falling to just 3,700 BTC—a two-week low. This figure stands in stark contrast to the panic selling seen on February 5-6, when STHs moved 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss during a period of market stress. The sharp decline in loss-taking suggests that the most price-sensitive investors have shown “zero panic” and that significant selling pressure has been absorbed.
Spot Buying and Deleveraging Signal Healthier Market
The rally above $70,000 was driven by tangible demand in the spot markets rather than speculative derivatives activity. During the breakout, Binance recorded approximately $7.79 million in positive spot delta, with Coinbase adding $1.16 million and OKX contributing nearly $3.7 million. This aggressive spot bidding across major venues points to conviction from buyers. Concurrently, the derivatives market has undergone a significant de-risking. Open interest on Binance has contracted by 25% since the beginning of the year, from 130,800 BTC to 97,680 BTC. The estimated leverage ratio also fell to a weekly average of 0.146, a level historically associated with deleveraging phases. With the price now trading above its monthly volume-weighted average price (RVWAP) in the high-$68,000s, market attention shifts to the external liquidity zone between $70,000 and $71,500. A successful conversion of this area into support could pave the way for a move toward higher price levels.
