Bitcoin rejects $61K after 6% relief rally from $58K low

Bitcoin fell to a new low near $58,000 on July 2, then rallied 6% before sellers rejected the bounce at $61,000.

"Bitcoin's June close below its 200-week moving average but above realized price signals the bear bottom is still ahead per prior cycles," Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at Bitrue Research Institute, said.

BTC dropped 20.5% in June to close at $58,526 — its worst monthly performance since June 2022 — below the 200-week moving average of $62,000 but above the realized price of $52,000, according to PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow pricing model. The relief rally to start July pushed BTC to $60,475 on Bitstamp during the US session before sellers stepped in, rejecting the move at $61,000 resistance. More than $200 million in long positions were liquidated across exchanges in the 24 hours following the rejection, Coinglass data shows.

If $60,000 fails as support, Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, sees strong historical and technical support forming around $55,000, while PlanB warned Bitcoin could drop to $52,000 — a level that would represent a roughly 60% decline from the all-time high. The US dollar index reversed from local highs of 101.6 at the open, offering some relief to risk assets, though the Kobeissi Letter warned that speculative long positioning in the dollar had surged to $34.3 billion as of June 23, the highest in 18 months, suggesting a crowded trade that could unwind.

Benjamin Cowen, founder of ITC Crypto, noted that the second half of US midterm election years has historically coincided with bear market bottoms, pointing to the 2018 and 2022 cycles. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted a historical pattern of red Junes followed by green Julys and red Augusts, raising the possibility of a relief bounce before further downside. The 200-week moving average at $62,000 now serves as overhead resistance, with the realized price at $52,000 acting as the next major floor if selling pressure intensifies.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.