Bitcoin Nears Historic Oversold Signal, Triggering Cycle Reset Debate

Edgen Crypto

·Feb 26 2026, 16:36

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Key Takeaways

Bitcoin's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching a historically oversold territory, a technical signal that has rarely occurred and often precedes major trend reversals. This development has led analysts to question traditional market cycle timing.

Rare Technical Signal: On February 25, 2026, Bitcoin's weekly RSI neared levels historically associated with market bottoms, suggesting selling pressure may be exhausted.
Cycle Reset Theory: Analysts are interpreting the indicator as a potential "cycle reset" after an uncharacteristic price peak occurred before the scheduled halving event.
Market Uncertainty: The signal introduces significant uncertainty, pointing to either a potential price rally from a market bottom or a prolonged period of consolidation before any recovery.

Bitcoin Weekly RSI Approaches Historic Lows

On February 25, 2026, Bitcoin's weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) approached a historically oversold condition. The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements, with low readings suggesting an asset may be undervalued and due for a rebound. A dip into oversold territory on the weekly chart is a rare event for Bitcoin, and has historically flagged major market bottoms, making it a closely watched signal for traders looking for entry points.

Pre-Halving Peak Prompts "Cycle Reset" Analysis

This technical development is forcing a re-evaluation of Bitcoin's market structure, which traditionally follows a four-year cycle centered around its supply-cutting "halving" events. The market's recent peak occurred before the upcoming halving, a deviation from historical precedent. This has prompted analysts to float the theory of a "cycle reset," where established patterns of price appreciation may no longer apply. Such a reset could alter the timing and magnitude of the next major market move, creating both new opportunities and risks for investors who rely on past cycle performance as a guide.