Bitcoin nears $60,000 as traders warn bottom is months away

Bitcoin fell to as low as $59,100 last week before recovering to $63,493 as of 14:00 UTC Monday, with traders warning the bear market bottom remains months away.

"The ultimate market low is not expected until middle to late Q3," Mark Cullen, a crypto trader, said in an analysis on X. ColinTalksCrypto projected a similar timeline, arguing that Q4 "has high odds of being the cycle bottom" after Bitcoin closed below its 200-week simple moving average.

The selloff has erased roughly $390 billion from the crypto market, with Bitcoin's market cap falling to about $1.25 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 8 out of 100 on Monday, one of the lowest readings on record, according to Alternative.me data. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant said the spent output profit ratio for long-term and short-term holders has fallen significantly, indicating "speculative excess has largely been removed from the system."

The $60,000 level represents a critical psychological floor that held during a test in February. A convincing break below that threshold — defined by three consecutive days of trading below $60,000 with lower lows and lower highs — could open the path toward $50,000, according to Reuters technical analysis. The next catalyst arrives this week with May US CPI and PPI data, which will test whether inflation pressures continue to push the Federal Reserve toward rate hikes rather than cuts.

On-chain signals offer mixed picture

The MVRV Z-Score, which measures how far Bitcoin's market price deviates from its realized value, stood at 0.24 as of Monday, approaching the zero threshold that has historically coincided with bear market bottoms in 2014, 2018 and 2022, according to TradingView data. However, the gap between long-term holder MVRV at 1.29 and short-term holder MVRV at 0.84 has not yet converged, suggesting further downside may be needed before a true cycle low forms, Glassnode data shows.

Supply in profit has fallen to roughly 47%, meaning more than half of Bitcoin holders are at break-even or in a loss position, CryptoQuant data shows. That compares with levels above 90% during bull market peaks.

Macro headwinds intensify

The macro backdrop has turned increasingly hostile for risk assets. US inflation data due this week — the May CPI and PPI releases — will reflect the ongoing influence of the US-Iran war on energy costs. Oil prices have already responded, with WTI crude returning above $95 per barrel. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows markets pricing in two rate hikes by early 2027, a sharp reversal from the four rate cuts expected just months ago.

The US-Iran conflict remains an unpredictable catalyst. President Donald Trump said Sunday that the latest strikes would not affect peace negotiations, but the assurances failed to prevent new multiyear lows for Bitcoin last week.

Traders eye relief bounce before further losses

Despite the bearish outlook, some traders anticipate a short-term recovery. Michaël van de Poppe said he expects prices to rotate higher after the US open Tuesday, with a "glimpse of upwards momentum" for Bitcoin. Lennaert Snyder identified $72,500 as a final long target for the week if the $59,100 weekly low holds.

Santiment described the current sentiment as the "highest level of pessimism since mid-February," noting that such moments of "widespread despair" have historically appeared close to market bottoms. "When traders begin declaring an asset class 'dead,' it typically signals that many sellers have already exited their positions," the research platform said.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.