Bitcoin nears $60,000 as Novogratz warns of Strategy-driven selloff risk

Bitcoin fell 4.6% to $60,100 as of 14:00 UTC Saturday, extending its decline to more than 50% from the October high of $126,000, with traders focused on the $59,000 to $60,000 support zone.

"The sell-off reflects a MicroStrategy-led breakdown in confidence," Mike Novogratz, chief executive of Galaxy Digital, said in an interview. "The Saylor thing is real."

Strategy, which holds about 847,000 Bitcoin worth roughly $51 billion, has seen its stock collapse 79% from a July 2025 peak of $457, leaving the company's $31 billion market capitalization below the value of its own Bitcoin holdings. Its preferred stock, STRC, trades at $74, or 26% below its $100 face value, after the company sold 32 Bitcoin in late May — its first sale since 2022 — to help cover a $1.7 billion annual dividend bill.

A break below $60,000 could open a path toward $45,000, Novogratz said, calling the next move a "50/50" call. The level coincides with a buildup in bearish options positioning and rising exchange supply, which has climbed 41,675 Bitcoin since late April, according to CryptoQuant data.

The Strategy Premium Has Vanished

For years, Strategy's stock traded at a premium to its Bitcoin holdings, allowing the company to sell shares, buy more coins, and increase Bitcoin per share. That premium has now disappeared. The stock trades below the net asset value of its Bitcoin once debt and preferred claims — which rank ahead of common equity and cover about 41% of the holdings — are accounted for.

The company's funding engine has stalled. In the week ending June 21, Strategy raised nothing from its STRC preferred shares and only about $336 million from common stock sales, a fraction of the more than $100 million a day it was raising at its peak earlier this year.

Adam Livingston, a Strategy-focused analyst, modeled a worst-case scenario in which Bitcoin crashes to $26,600, capital markets close, and the company is forced to sell coins to cover obligations. Even then, Strategy would survive with more than 731,000 Bitcoin after three years, though Bitcoin per share would fall about 94%.

Whales Sell as Retail Buys the Dip

On-chain data shows a divergence that has historically preceded further weakness. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin shed about 48,422 coins in 10 days, while the smallest wallets — those with 0.01 Bitcoin or less — added roughly 496 coins over seven weeks, according to Santiment.

Exchange supply has risen 41,675 Bitcoin since late April, raising the risk of additional sell pressure. Bitcoin's 365-day market-value-to-realized-value ratio stands at negative 33%, a level that has historically marked accumulation zones but has yet to attract large holders back to the bid.

The sentiment ratio fell below 1.0 for three consecutive days, meaning bearish comments outnumbered bullish ones — a rare reading that preceded a multi-week bounce in early June, Santiment data show.

Macro Headwinds Compound Crypto Stress

Novogratz also pointed to a strengthening US dollar as a headwind for Bitcoin. "Strong dollar is weak Bitcoin," he said, noting that hawkish central bank signals have reduced demand for risk assets.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump refused to sign a bipartisan housing bill that includes a four-year ban on a central bank digital currency, saying he would not approve it until the voting identification Save America Act is passed. The move raises questions about whether Trump will also decline to sign the Clarity Act, a crypto market structure bill with a July 4 deadline, according to Javier Martinez, chief executive of crypto platform sFox.

For Strategy to resume its Bitcoin buying cycle, the stock needs to climb back above roughly $183, which corresponds to a Bitcoin price near $91,500. Until then, the company faces a slow grind of small Bitcoin sales to cover its dividend obligations — a dynamic that keeps the market's largest corporate buyer on the sidelines.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.