Bitcoin miners hold hash rate as price falls 49% from peak

Bitcoin's 49% drawdown from its October 2025 peak has not triggered miner capitulation, with hash rate falling less than half as much as price.

Bitcoin fell 49% from its October 2025 peak to about $63,400, while the seven-day average hash rate dropped just 23% to 886 EH/s, on-chain data shows.

"Miners are not shutting down operations en masse, but rather adapting to lower profitability," Axel Adler Jr., an on-chain analyst, said.

The 30-day moving average share of transaction fees in mining revenue has declined to 0.71%, a level not seen since December 2015, according to Adler. Hash rate has hovered around 900 EH/s, suggesting the sector is adjusting rather than experiencing a sharp shutdown.

The industry would be seen as emerging from the profitability squeeze only if the fee-revenue share stays above 1 percent and hash rate starts rising again, Adler said — a signal that would also mark a potential floor for the market.

Hash rate holds while price halves

The divergence — price falling twice as much as hash rate — indicates miners are not selling off hardware in panic. It also reflects a structural shift: at $63,500 with difficulty at 127.48 trillion, hash price sits at levels that force any miner without a subsidized power contract to sell production immediately. Publicly listed miners have sold roughly 28,000 BTC worth about $1.78 billion this year, with MARA Holdings disposing of 23,093 BTC for $1.627 billion in the first half and Strategy selling 1,690 BTC at $64,262. Yet aggregate hash power has held near 900 EH/s, meaning the exits are concentrated among the least efficient operators while larger, low-cost miners keep machines running.

What a recovery would look like

Adler's two conditions — fee share above 1 percent and a rising hash rate — would confirm miner confidence has stabilized. Historically, miner capitulation has preceded market recoveries, and its absence now suggests the drawdown has not yet reached a capitulation floor. Bitcoin trades below its 200-day EMA at $72,097, with the 1.79 million BTC carrying a cost basis between $62,000 and $65,000 capping rallies at $65,416. Support sits at $62,500, with realized price near $52,750 as the line separating a correction from genuine capitulation.

For traders, the resilience cuts both ways. It removes a source of forced selling that has weighed on price, but it also means the network has not yet flushed the weakest hands — a condition that has historically marked cycle bottoms. Until fee revenue recovers and hash rate turns higher, the range between $62,500 and $65,500 is likely to hold.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.