Valuation Metrics Normalize After $33B Capital Outflow
Key on-chain valuation indicators for Bitcoin have reset, signaling a potential shift in market structure. According to Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which compares market capitalization to the on-chain cost basis, has fully normalized from its prior +1 standard deviation extremes. This compression toward the long-term average suggests Bitcoin is no longer in overvalued territory and may be entering a zone that has historically presented improved risk-reward opportunities for buyers.
This normalization is driven by significant capital outflows. Bitcoin's realized capitalization—the value of all coins at the price they were last moved—contracted by roughly $33 billion, falling from a November 2025 peak of $1.12 trillion to $1.09 trillion. The 30-day change now stands at -2.26%, underscoring the sustained exit of capital. This has left a large cohort of recent buyers underwater; investors who acquired BTC in the last three to six months now account for 25.9% of the supply, with many holding positions at a loss. This dynamic creates a "neutrally defensive" market posture, where widespread capitulation has not occurred, but new capital is insufficient to reverse the downtrend.
Seller Pressure Eases Despite Lower Market Participation
Exchange order flow data corroborates the defensive market sentiment but also points to early signs of seller exhaustion. The spot cumulative volume delta (CVD), which measures the net difference between market buy and sell orders, improved from -$177.1 million to -$161.5 million. This modest uptick signals a reduction in aggressive selling pressure, even as Bitcoin's price remains pinned below $65,000.
However, this stabilization is occurring in a low-liquidity environment. Spot trading volume has concurrently fallen from $7.6 billion to $6.0 billion, indicating thinner overall market participation. While a flattening CVD within the current $62,000–$64,000 range suggests that the remaining supply is being absorbed more efficiently, a sustained price recovery will likely require a significant return of trading volume to confirm renewed spot demand.
