Bitcoin and Ethereum have returned 1.5% and 6.2%, respectively, since the conflict began, while gold and silver fell 13% and 22%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed the macro shock, recording $1.7 billion in net inflows during the first two weeks of the crisis. Iran's demand for Bitcoin payments to transit the Strait of Hormuz marks a new use case for the asset in bypassing global financial systems.
Bitcoin has gained over 1 percent since the beginning of the Iran conflict 32 days ago, with prices hovering at $70,866 as of April 13, 2026. The move has strengthened the crypto’s “supra-sovereign asset” narrative, particularly as traditional safe havens like gold and silver declined 13 percent and 22 percent over the same period, according to a Binance Research report.
"Bitcoin is actually acting like a safe haven," Andy Baehr, managing director of asset management at GSR, said in a recent interview. Baehr noted the asset was up about 4 percent in the initial days of the conflict, a period that saw oil prices spike over 70 percent and global equity markets sell off.
The divergence from legacy assets was supported by strong institutional demand. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $1.7 billion between March 2 and March 17, absorbing the initial macro shock. In contrast, the S&P 500 declined 8 percent and the Magnificent Seven tech stocks fell 10 percent during the 32-day period. Ethereum showed even stronger performance, gaining 6.27 percent in March, though its spot ETFs saw minor outflows of $82 million.
The war is repricing Bitcoin's role in a world order that Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio says is breaking down. Iran's reported demand for a Bitcoin-based toll of $1 per barrel for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz—a fee that could reach $2 million per vessel—is the first time a sovereign nation has used Bitcoin to bypass the legacy financial system in real-time trade. This sets a precedent that could significantly increase global demand for the asset if other sanctioned nations follow suit.
The conflict introduced a new, real-world use case for Bitcoin that markets are now pricing in. After Iran began demanding BTC for passage, the price briefly jumped nearly 7 percent intraday from $68,000 to almost $73,000. While a fragile US-Iran ceasefire has since been negotiated, the situation remains volatile. Oil prices, which had topped $115 a barrel, fell back to the mid-$90s, but the precedent has been set. "The market is no longer just pricing in Federal Reserve pivots; it is pricing in the birth of a sovereign BTC-standard for global commodities," the Bitcoin Magazine report noted.
While the geopolitical premium is a new development, the resilience of Bitcoin's price was underpinned by steady institutional buying. According to Binance Research, three independent demand channels—ETF flows, US spot market buying, and corporate treasury accumulation—collectively absorbed the macro shock and drove the subsequent rally. On-chain data further supports this, showing retail investors accumulated over 4.37 million BTC in the weeks following the initial invasion. The dynamic suggests a new floor for the asset, with long-term holders and large-scale accumulators stepping in to buy any significant dips. "This is a phase to stay measured and avoid chasing rapid price movements," Avinash Shekhar, CEO of Pi42, said.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
