Bitcoin falls with gold to $62,000 as rate-hike bets hit every hedge

The relief rally in crypto is unwinding alongside gold and tech stocks as traders brace for a hot CPI print and a hawkish Warsh Fed.

Bitcoin fell 3.2% to $62,000 by 14:30 UTC Tuesday, retreating alongside gold and tech stocks as markets priced in a growing probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes under Chairman Kevin Warsh. The pullback erased most of the weekend relief bounce from Friday's low of $59,159, with traders now eyeing the May CPI print on Wednesday as the next catalyst.

"The coordinated selloff in bitcoin, gold and the Nasdaq tells you this isn't a crypto-specific event — it's a liquidity-driven repricing across every asset that benefited from low rates," Nina Volkov, bitcoin macro analyst at Edgen, said. "When the front end of the curve reprices by 80 basis points in three months, nothing is safe."

Two-year Treasury yields have surged more than 80 basis points since March to 4.19%, while 10-year yields climbed to 4.56%, according to Bloomberg data. CME FedWatch data shows traders now price in a quarter-point hike by December with a 16% probability of a second increase, a dramatic reversal from earlier this year when markets expected up to four rate cuts in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists said they no longer expect any rate cuts this year following a stronger-than-expected labor market report.

The breakdown of the "inflation hedge" narrative — bitcoin and gold falling in tandem — carries implications beyond this week's CPI print. If the data comes in hot, further rate expectations could drive additional selling pressure across crypto and risk assets. A soft print, conversely, could spark a sharp reversal. The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, Warsh's first since taking office.

Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume reached $38.2 billion, above the seven-day average of $31.5 billion, CoinGecko data shows. Open interest across major exchanges fell 4.8% to $28.1 billion, while funding rates turned negative across Binance and OKX, indicating short positioning dominates, according to Coinglass data.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 8 out of 100 on Monday, its lowest reading since early April and among the lowest ever recorded. CryptoQuant data shows the proportion of bitcoin supply held in profit has fallen to roughly 47%, meaning more than half of all holders are at break-even or in a loss position — a sharp contrast to bull market conditions when over 90% of supply was in profit.

Rate Hikes Reshape the Macro Picture

The repricing of Fed expectations has been the dominant macro force across markets. Yields on two- and five-year Treasuries — the most sensitive to changes in Fed policy — have risen more than 80 basis points from their March lows. JPMorgan Chase sees 10-year yields ending the year at 4.70%.

The shift has been compounded by escalating US-Iran tensions, which pushed WTI crude above $95 a barrel, adding to inflation concerns. South Korea's stock market was halted for volatility Monday after falling 8% at the open, while the Nasdaq tumbled more than 3% before recovering to a 1% decline by the close.

Crypto-related equities were hit hard. Strategy (MSTR) fell 8%, while Coinbase (COIN) declined 4.1%. Galaxy Digital (GLXY) bucked the trend, rising 7.1% as investors reassessed its valuation in light of rapid data center expansion.

Traders are watching the $59,159 level as key support, with a break below that opening the door to the $55,000 range. On the upside, bitcoin faces resistance at $72,500, the site of an unfilled imbalance from last week's breakdown.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.