Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin rose 2% to $65,600 after the US and Iran reached a peace agreement, removing a geopolitical risk that had weighed on crypto markets for months.
The deal, facilitated by Pakistan and Qatar, ended a 106-day conflict that disrupted global markets and pushed energy prices higher. President Donald Trump confirmed the agreement includes the immediate removal of the US Navy blockade and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz without toll charges, according to CoinGecko data as of 14:30 UTC.
The rally accelerated after core CPI rose 0.2% in May, below the 0.3% estimate tracked by economists. The lower-than-expected reading offered relief to investors who had spent months worrying that inflation would remain stubbornly high. The Chaikin Money Flow indicator turned positive at 0.19, showing renewed buying pressure. The largest concentration of short liquidations sits between $66,000 and $66,500, according to Coinglass data.
A sustained move above the 20-day EMA at $66,600 would mark the first major technical victory for buyers since the correction began. The formal signing ceremony in Switzerland is the next event to watch, with traders focused on whether BTC can hold above the $63,000 to $64,000 volume zone.
Data from CryptoQuant showed Bitcoin was trading only about 9% above its realized price of roughly $53,600 before the rally, showing how close the market came to testing early 2024 lows. ETF demand had weakened in the weeks prior, with spot Bitcoin ETFs from BlackRock and Fidelity seeing net outflows during the selloff to $59,000.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin remains below its major moving averages despite the rebound. The 20-day EMA sits near $66,600, while the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages are positioned around $70,600, $73,300, and $78,700. The daily RSI has recovered to around 41 after falling into deeply oversold territory.
Beneath current levels, support remains concentrated around $64,500, $64,000, and the broader $63,000 to $64,000 region, where both volume profile and liquidation data show significant activity. A break below that zone could expose the $59,000 level tested earlier this week, while a push through $66,000 opens the path toward the 20-day EMA.
Easing tensions could reduce pressure on oil prices and Treasury yields, which have influenced Bitcoin's decline earlier this year. A sustained drop in energy-driven inflation could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will eventually have more room to ease monetary policy, a scenario that has historically supported demand for risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Ethereum traded near $3,520, up 1.8% over 24 hours, tracking Bitcoin's recovery.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
